The UK has been divided and debated for years over its departure from the European Union. Still, the debate seems to go on and on.
More than six years have passed since the referendum that voted to leave the EU. The UK is facing a long recession, a severe cost of living crisis and a labor shortage. Last week’s Fall Fiscal Report predicted that years of tax increases and public spending cuts would continue.
UK Already in Recession, Chancellor Hunt Announces Huge Tax Increase and Spending Cuts (1)
The bleak outlook has led to a revival of the Brexit debate, which the ruling Conservative Party has resolutely avoided. Britain’s Sunday Times reported over the weekend that senior Sunak officials were seeking a closer “Swiss-style” relationship with the EU. The article drew attention to the hardliners who oppose anything that undermines the regulatory freedom Britain gained with Brexit.
Lagging Behind
Living standards in the UK are lower than they were before the referendum
Source: OECD
Chancellor Hunt has said privately that the UK needs to seek closer trade deals with the EU. Several senior government officials familiar with Hunt’s thinking said. This is similar to the Sunday Times report. But one senior official criticized Mr Hunt’s comments as rash.
A spokesman for Hunt declined to comment, and people familiar with him said his views were being over-interpreted by the media.
Still, the tone of his comments reflects a change in public attitudes about Brexit. A new poll overseen by John Curtis, professor of political science at the University of Strathclyde, who specializes in British elections, found that 57% of Britons oppose leaving the EU. 43% agreed. YouGov released a survey last week which showed a record 56% of respondents saying Brexit was wrong. Around 19% of those who voted to leave say they now regret their decision.
“Support for leaving the EU is slowly, slowly eroding,” said Curtis. He added that after 12 years of Conservative government, the people are simply bored and facing demographic problems. “There are a lot of EU-leaning young people who are joining the electorate at 18,” he said.
Prime Minister Sunak, who backed Brexit in a referendum, said on the 21st that the UK would never seek a relationship with Europe that complies with EU law while I lead the government. Freedom, he argued, is “an opportunity important with Brexit.”
However, there are those who do not agree with the prime minister’s claims. In a WhatsApp group message to other Conservative MPs, former Housing and Communities Secretary Clarke said he wanted to harmonize UK and EU rules to reap the economic benefits of securing access to EU markets. A long-standing aspiration for the UK Treasury, he said. Bloomberg confirmed this message.
Prime Minister Sunak on UK-EU relations
Source: Bloomberg
Many of the Conservative MPs elected in the 2019 general election are in favor of Brexit, and it is unlikely that the UK will make a new offer to the EU before the next general election, which is due to be held by January 2025. several party legislators said. If Sunak tries to do that, EU hardliners will try to ban him, one lawmaker said.
However, hardliners are not as strong as they used to be, as they could not agree on who to endorse as prime minister in the party’s leadership election last month.
As the economic outlook darkens, the question of Brexit becomes more important than ever. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said Brexit would cut Britain’s GDP by 4% over the long term. A Bloomberg Economics analysis found that Britain lagged behind other major economies in trade before the coronavirus pandemic and has lagged behind in its recovery since.
Trade Performance
Leaving the European Union has had a detrimental effect on British trade
Source: OECD, Bloomberg Economics
Original title:Sunak’s Britain Is Starting to Have Second Thoughts on Brexit （抜粋）
