Russia’s troops currently appear to be kept in check by Ukraine. Nevertheless, Kiev is preparing for an offensive by Moscow.
After the fall of Avdiivka in February, Russian units attempted to make large-scale advances outside the city. They initially succeeded. But now there are increasing reports that the advance has come to a standstill. Although Ukraine had withdrawn from the city, it had not yet given up on it.
North of Avdiivka, Russia was able to advance for kilometers. “The biggest terrain gains this year,” wrote the US magazine “Forbes”. But then they encountered the 47th Mechanized Brigade of Ukraine and other units. They had apparently been able to recover and struck back. At the center: the American M-1 Abrams tanks and M-2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. According to the Forbes report, a major tank battle broke out a few days ago in the town of Berdykhi, just a few kilometers north of Avdiivka.
There were losses on both sides; Ukraine is said to have lost three Abrams. But the streets are said to be lined with Russian tanks, according to the report. Hundreds of Russian soldiers are said to have died in the fighting. According to Forbes, Ukraine has thus repulsed the Russian attackers and successfully defended the town of Berdychi. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense distributed videos on X and Facebook purporting to show the destruction of Russian tanks by the 47th Mechanized Brigade.
Expert: No decisive breakthroughs
The New York Times also reported setbacks for Putin’s army after the Kremlin chief publicly praised his troops for taking Avdiivka. “After initially quickly gaining ground, Russian attacks are now concentrated around just three nearby villages,” the US newspaper reports. The reasons given are the environment, which makes attacks more difficult – there are bodies of water behind which the Ukrainian soldiers seek shelter – and a general tiredness among the Russian soldiers.
“The capture of Avdiivka did not lead to the collapse of Ukrainian lines and did not give the Russians the opportunity to advance into open terrain or even make major gains,” said Thibault Fouillet, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic and Defense Studies, a French research center . “There are no decisive actions or breakthroughs.”
Fortifications continue to be expanded
Russian forces “seem to be trying to advance with small infantry groups, but are being decimated in the relatively open terrain west of Avdiivka,” said Pasi Paroinen, an analyst at the Black Bird Group, a Finland-based open-source community that provides satellite imagery and social media -Evaluates media content from the battlefield, told the New York Times.
The Ukrainian newspaper “Kyiv Independent” reports on Russian advances south of Avdiivka. Northeast of the city of Krasnohorivka, not far from Donetsk, the Russian armed forces advanced further into the Donetsk region after the fall of the Ukrainian stronghold Avdiivka in mid-February. The population suffers from constant shelling, including from Russian glide bombs.
However, the Ukrainian defenders cannot sit back. The American Institute for War Studies (ISW) wrote in its latest analysis on Friday that Russian units had improved their tactics. This was the result of an analysis of the attacks on Avdiivka. Military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets would see faster reformation and surprise attacks, reports the ISW.
However, this has so far only been observed in Avdiivka and does not necessarily mean that Russia has also adjusted its soldiers to new tactics in other areas of the front. “Russian forces have made limited adjustments at the tactical level in certain sectors of the front, but the continued widespread tactical errors made by Russians throughout Ukraine indicate that the Russian military leadership is not internalizing all possible tactical adjustments and among the various ones operating in Ukraine spread to Russian troop groups,” the assessment states.
Ukraine reported success on another part of the front on Saturday. According to the company’s own account, the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro near Kherson has been expanded. As the Ukrainian General Staff in Kiev announced in its daily situation report on Saturday, the Russian military responded with increased use of combat drones and artillery. A Russian airstrike hit a building in Kherson on the other bank of the Dnipro. The information could not initially be independently verified.
