Ukrainian soldiers demonstrated their bravery and fortitude as they installed and inspected a mortar in the fierce battlefield of Bakhmut in the midst of heavy snow last February. The war in Ukraine has entered its second winter since its onset, and speculation is spreading among some Western countries as to whether the ongoing conflict will endure another challenging winter for the fatigued Ukrainian army. With Russia’s traditionally strong winter military prowess, concerns are mounting about the potential for a prolonged and difficult winter for Ukraine. These concerns have sparked conflicting opinions among Western nations, with some calling for a reevaluation of support for Ukraine, while others argue that even stronger assistance is needed.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy recently made a plea for increased support from the West during a meeting of EU Foreign Ministers in the capital city of Kiev. Zelenskiy emphasized that victory in the conflict depended on Western cooperation and urged for stronger and more principled measures to expedite the end of the war.
However, there is a growing movement among Western countries to reduce or suspend support for Ukraine, raising alarm bells for the nation. Ukraine is in urgent need of assistance in acquiring long-range weapons like missiles and drones before the winter season, which slows down land development. Conversely, the Russian army, accustomed to harsh winter conditions, retains its traditional strength during winter combat. The failure of Ukraine’s counter-offensive to significantly turn the tide has fueled Russia’s confidence in its winter capabilities. In fact, Russia recently increased its defense budget for the upcoming year to almost 70% of the previous year’s budget. CNN reports that there is a high possibility of Russia paralyzing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and plunging the country into a dark winter.
Despite the challenges, there are predictions that Ukraine, having experienced a winter war last year, will fare relatively better this year. CNN suggests that instead of relying on large-scale ground forces at the start of the conflict, Ukraine will focus on attacking major Russian facilities with small-scale ground forces, backed by Western-supported long-range missiles and drones. This strategy may even extend to concentrated attacks on the Black Sea and the Crimean Peninsula. However, this approach requires increased and superior weapons support.
Unfortunately, signs of division and weariness among Western nations still persist. In Slovakia, a pro-Russian political party won the general election, advocating for a policy of withdrawing support for Ukraine. This stance is troubling considering Slovakia’s membership in the EU and NATO, as it was the first European country to provide fighter jets and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine. Additionally, during the EU Foreign Ministers meeting, Hungary, Poland, and Latvia, all allies of Ukraine, chose not to participate. Furthermore, there is a rift within the United States, with the Republican Party’s hardliners calling for an end to aid that they deem wasteful. As a result, $24 billion worth of military aid to Ukraine was excluded from the interim budget passed by Congress.
Amidst these varying perspectives and conflicts, Ukraine continues to rely on the support and cooperation of its Western allies to navigate the challenges of the ongoing conflict.
Ukrainian soldiers install and inspect a mortar in the fierce battlefield of Bakhmut in the middle of the heavy snow last February./Ukrainian 93rd Mechanized Brigade Facebook
The war in Ukraine is in its second winter since the start of the war. Ukraine’s ‘major anti-crime’, which began last summer, has not produced any clear results, and as winter approaches, which is advantageous to Russia, suspicion is spreading among some Western countries. If the Russian army, which is traditionally strong in winter, gains momentum again, it could be another ‘hard winter’ for the Ukrainian army, which is tired of the long-term war. In response to these concerns, there are conflicting voices from the West, with those calling for a reconsideration of wasteful support (such as the US Republican Party) and those from the West saying that stronger support is needed more than ever (the European Union / EU) .
According to Reuters on the 2nd (local time), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy once again appealed for support from the West in a statement issued on the occasion of the meeting of EU Foreign Ministers held in the capital Kiev. He said, “Victory depends directly on our (Western) cooperation,” and “The stronger and more principled measures we implement together, the faster the war will end.”
Zelensky’s comments came amid a growing recent move among Western countries to reduce or suspend support for the war in Ukraine. Ukraine urgently needs support for long-range weapons such as missiles and drones before the winter season, when land development slows down. On the other hand, the Russian army, accustomed to bitter cold, is traditionally strong in winter combat. While Ukraine’s counter-offensive failed to turn the tide clearly, Russia appeared to reflect this ‘winter confidence’ by increasing next year’s defense budget to almost 70% of the previous year’s budget on the 28th of r last month. CNN said, “The Russian military has already adapted to the battlefield and is preparing for a long-term war. There is a high possibility that it will paralyze Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and plunge Ukraine into a dark winter.” As winter ended last March, Ukraine’s then-Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said, “We have endured the hardest winter in history.”
On the other hand, there are predictions that Ukraine, which experienced a winter war last year, will do relatively well this year. CNN said, “Instead of using large-scale ground forces at the start of the war, we will target Russia with a strategy of destroying major Russian facilities by deploying small-scale ground forces and using Western-backed long-range missiles and drones,” adding, “We will attack Russia even in winter.” “If possible, we can concentrate our forces on the areas of the Black Sea and the Crimean Peninsula,” he analyzed. To achieve this strategy, superior weapons support is needed more than ever. However, among Western countries tired of the protracted war, voices are coming out one after another saying, “We must stop supporting Ukraine,” and there is still age signs of division.
Graphics = Lee Cheol-win
In Slovakia, a country bordering Ukraine and an Eastern European country with a clear pro-Western stance, the pro-Russian Social Democratic Party (SD, Smer) took first place in the general election on the 30th of last month and is advocating ‘ a policy of withdrawing support. The former Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Pitso, who leads this party, has declared, “We will not send even one barrel of ammunition to Ukraine.” Slovakia is a member of the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and a representative ‘ally’ being the first European country to provide fighter jets and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, but as the possibility of change in the government increase, there are signs of departure.
The cracks in the West were also revealed at the EU Foreign Ministers meeting on the 2nd. Representatives from all countries that attended the meeting that day emphasized their will to support Ukraine. Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Affairs, said, “The joint EU meeting with Ukraine in Kiev is a clear commitment to Ukraine.” In addition, the EU announced that it would consider providing military aid worth 5 billion euros (about 7.15 trillion won) to Ukraine next year. French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna also said, “We will show our firm and continuous support in this meeting until Ukraine wins,” adding, “It is also a message that Russia should not expect us to tire.” “We’ll be there for a long time to come.” However, Hungary, Poland, and Latvia, all allies of Ukraine, did not participate in this meeting. These are the countries that are in conflict with the Ukrainian government after extending the ban on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products last month. Poland has already stated that it “will no longer transfer weapons to Ukraine.”
Even in the United States, the backbone of the Western bloc, there is conflict between the Republican and Democratic parties over support for Ukraine. As hardliners in the Republican Party called for an end to wasteful aid to Ukraine, $24 billion (about 32.5 trillion won) worth of military aid to Ukraine was excluded from the interim budget passed by Congress. United States on the 30th of last month. President Joe Biden says he will restore this when preparing the main budget, but the situation itself, with ‘different voices’ coming out of the US Congress about a year before the presidential and general elections, is a big variable . The former President of the United States, Donald Trump, who announced his candidacy for the presidential election of the United States next year as a Republican candidate, has criticized the support of weapons to Ukraine for prolonging the war and increasing the risk of nuclear war.
🌎 Global issues selected by Chosun Ilbo’s International Section! Subscribe to the newsletter ☞ https://page.stibee.com/subscriptions/275739
🌎Solve the international quiz and receive gifts! ☞
#signs #withdrawal #countries #host #arms #Ukraine #winter #coming
