US Report: If the People’s Liberation Army has the initial capability to attack Taiwan, Taiwan will buy more weapons from the US | Blog Article
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Recently, the situation in the Taiwan Strait has been heating up. In the latest annual report on US-China relations in the US Congress, the US-China Economic and Security Review Committee (USCC) used a whole chapter to talk about the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan’s ability to purchase arms from the United States should be strengthened, and the deterrence of both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific region should be strengthened.
USCC publishes its annual report on US-China relations.
The USCC report consists of five chapters, which are 539 pages long. The first chapter includes the global competition between the United States and China, the second chapter discusses the economic and trade relations between the United States and China, the third chapter is about US-China security, political and foreign affairs, and the fourth chapter. The themes of Chapter and Chapter 5 are Taiwan and Hong Kong, respectively. Chapter 4 is titled “Dangerous Period of Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait: China’s Military Power and Decision-Making War Against Taiwan.”
The report uses a whole chapter to talk about the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
The USCC report stated that the modernization process of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army has changed the military balance in the Taiwan Strait. Cross-strait deterrence is currently in a period of danger and uncertainty. The report assesses that China will risk using this capability while at the same time deterring, delaying or defeating US military intervention.
According to the report, the People’s Liberation Army has or will soon have the initial attack capability.
The report speculates that China may regard 2020 as a key milestone for the PLA to develop the capabilities needed to invade Taiwan. In order to achieve this goal, the PLA has systematically planned, trained, and built an army to attack Taiwan in the past nearly 20 years. Now it has the capability to conduct air and sea blockade, cyber attacks, and missile strikes against Taiwan.
The report also stated that any PLA attack on Taiwan in the short term will be a high-risk option. The People’s Liberation Army now has the ability to transport at least 25,000 soldiers to stage by sea and air in the initial stage. In addition, China has also developed the ability to use civilian ships in military operations, which provides a guarantee for the People’s Liberation Army to grab beaches.
The report assesses that in light of these developments, it has become uncertain whether conventional US military forces can continue to deter China. Taiwan’s defense investment has been insufficient for decades, and the key resource reserves needed to withstand the PLA blockade are insufficient, and it is facing major challenges.
Nevertheless, the report also pointed out that the use of force to attack Taiwan in the short term is still a high-risk option for the CCP. Because such operations mainly depend on whether the PLA has more sophisticated cyber attacks, missile strike capabilities, and blockade capabilities, in terms of attacking Taiwan, the PLA’s joint combat capabilities need to be continuously improved.
The report also believes that for the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party, whether and when they will attack Taiwan is a political issue rather than a military issue. They will face huge restrictions when making decisions. These restrictions include the uncertainty of military confrontation with the United States and the impact on China’s economy. The extensive damage caused, the attack on Taiwan, or the formation of alliances by some countries to limit China’s power and influence.
However, the report pointed out that given the Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping’s high tolerance for risks, he also hopes to leave a permanent political legacy. Therefore, the Chinese Communist Party may also ignore the warnings of the United States to attack Taiwan.
The report stated that maintaining deterrence across the Taiwan Strait is critical to the integrity of the US and US-led security architecture in the Indo-Pacific region.
The report stated that maintaining deterrence across the Taiwan Strait is critical to the integrity of the US and US-led security architecture in the Indo-Pacific region. The report said that Taiwan is an important partner of the United States and a beacon of democracy in the Asia-Pacific region. Losing the war in Taiwan will undermine the perception of countries in the Indo-Pacific region that the United States provides security guarantees. On the other hand, if the People’s Liberation Army succeeds in conquering Taiwan despite the political and military opposition of the United States, this will lay the foundation for China to become the dominant force in Asia, and the U.S. influence in Asia will be weakened.
Therefore, the report recommends that Congress should strengthen Taiwan’s ability to purchase arms from the United States and speed up sales and delivery procedures. Specifically, it includes allowing Taiwan to use foreign military funding funds to purchase weapons through direct commercial contracts; amending the Foreign Aid Act so that Taiwan is eligible for priority access to surplus defense items from the United States; and instructing the government to use special defense procurement funds to reduce military sales to Taiwan. Procurement preparation time, pre-stored defense items needed to maintain cross-strait deterrence.
The report also recommends that Congress authorize the strengthening of deterrence across the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific region, take urgent measures in the short term to strengthen the credibility of US military deterrence, and maintain the ability of the United States to fulfill its obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act to resist any threats to Taiwan’s security. Military action.
These emergency measures include: deploying a large number of anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM) and anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) in the Indo-Pacific; authorizing and funding the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) to strengthen intelligence monitoring and surveillance capabilities in the East China Sea and the South China Sea; authorization; And funded the Indo-Pacific Command’s request to strengthen US bases in the region, including strong missile defenses; authorized and funded the storage of large amounts of precision ammunition in the Indo-Pacific region; and authorized and funded some projects to enable the US military to be in the center Continue to fight with interruption of command and control.
The report’s recommendations on the situation in Taiwan show that the United States wants to strengthen its military power in the Indo-Pacific to maintain its influence in Asia, and Taiwan is the key. But the era when the United States unilaterally defined Sino-US relations is gone. If the United States misjudges and challenges China’s bottom line on the Taiwan issue, it will have great consequences.
President Xi warned the United States not to “play with fire” on the Taiwan issue.
In the video meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States just held on Tuesday morning, President Xi clearly warned the United States not to “play with fire” on the Taiwan issue. Besides, “If the separatist forces of “Taiwan independence” provoke persecution, or even break the red line, We will have to take drastic measures.” This first “dramatic measure” is worthy of careful consideration by the US side.
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