US tariffs ‘strengthen’ Lula against Bolsonaro’s son in upcoming elections – Al Jazeera

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round runoff election, according to a Quaest poll published by Folha de S Paulo. The data shows Lula leading with 45 percent of the vote compared to 37 percent for the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, as reported on July 23, 2026.

The polling shift coincides with an analysis from Al Jazeera, which reports that U.S. tariffs have strengthened Lula’s position against Flávio Bolsonaro in the upcoming elections. The economic pressure from trade barriers in the United States is cited as a factor influencing voter sentiment in Brazil.

Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and key figure in the conservative movement led by his father, represents the primary challenge to Lula’s administration in this runoff scenario. The 8-point gap in the Quaest poll indicates a lead for the incumbent, though the results reflect the volatile nature of Latin American political alignments amid shifting trade policies.

The intersection of U.S. trade policy and Brazilian domestic politics has become a central theme in the race. Al Jazeera reports that the implementation of tariffs by the U.S. government has provided a political opening for Lula to frame his economic strategy as a necessary defense of Brazilian industry and national interests.

This dynamic contrasts with the platform of the Bolsonaro family, which has historically emphasized close alignment with right-wing leadership in the United States, specifically the policies associated with Donald Trump. The current economic friction caused by tariffs appears to be complicating the narrative of seamless cooperation between the Bolsonaro camp and U.S. interests.

The Quaest poll for Folha de S Paulo serves as a benchmark for the current electoral climate in Brazil, highlighting the specific vulnerabilities of the Bolsonaro campaign when facing external economic shocks. While Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a significant base of support at 37 percent, the 45 percent support for Lula suggests a broader coalition is forming around the current administration’s response to international trade disputes.

Brazil’s position as a major global exporter makes it particularly sensitive to U.S. tariff adjustments. The reported impact on the election suggests that voters are weighing the effectiveness of the government’s diplomatic and economic maneuvers in the face of protectionist measures from the North American market.