US to Strike Iran: Military Action Imminent?

President Donald Trump has threatened further escalation in the ongoing conflict with Iran, stating the U.S. Military will “extremely hard” for the next two to three weeks and specifically targeting Iranian infrastructure. This comes amid reports of a downed U.S. F-35 fighter jet, though details remain unconfirmed. The statements were made as Operation Epic Fury, a coordinated military operation with Israel’s “Roaring Lion” campaign, continues to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and leadership.

The U.S. And Israel launched coordinated military operations against Iran on February 28, 2026, following a determination that diplomatic efforts had failed and a nuclear-armed Iran posed an unacceptable security risk. President Trump confirmed the strikes, stating the goal is to “defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime” and ensuring Tehran “can never have a nuclear weapon.”

Escalation Threats and Potential Targets

According to reports, Trump has indicated plans to destroy bridges and power plants within Iran. This escalation follows initial strikes targeting intelligence, defense, and nuclear programs, as reported by Iranian media. The specific nature of the downed F-35 and the circumstances surrounding the incident have not been publicly disclosed, adding to the volatile situation.

Market Reactions and Investment Implications

The conflict has already begun to impact global markets, particularly in the energy sector. Investors are closely monitoring the situation, and several exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are experiencing increased trading volume. The Invesco DB Oil Fund, United States Brent Oil Fund, LP, and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund are all seeing heightened activity as oil prices fluctuate due to supply concerns. The iShares Global Energy ETF and iShares U.S. Energy ETF are also under scrutiny.

Defense stocks are also reacting to the increased geopolitical tensions. Companies like Lockheed Martin Corp, Northrop Grumman Corp, and General Dynamics Corp are experiencing investor interest as demand for military equipment is expected to rise. Correspondingly, ETFs such as the SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF, Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF, and iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF are seeing increased trading volume.

Safe-haven assets are also being affected. Gold prices have risen as investors seek security during the uncertainty, benefiting funds like the SPDR Gold Shares and iShares Gold Trust. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is also experiencing increased demand as investors move towards less risky investments.

Regional Impact and International Response

Israel has expressed strong support for the U.S. Actions, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stating the operation is aimed at removing “the existential threat posed by the terrorist regime in Iran.” The coordinated nature of the strikes highlights the close alliance between the two countries. The impact on regional allies, particularly in the Arab states, is also significant, as they share concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional influence.

The iShares MSCI Israel ETF is being watched closely as a gauge of investor sentiment towards the region. Funds focused on other Middle Eastern markets, such as the iShares MSCI UAE ETF and iShares MSCI Kuwait ETF, are also experiencing volatility. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is broadly affected by the instability.

Differing Assessments of Iranian Threat

While the Trump administration asserts that Iran posed an imminent threat, some sources dispute this claim. The American Friends Service Committee (AFSC) argues that Iran does not possess long-range missiles capable of reaching the U.S. And that the justification for military action is questionable. This divergence in assessments underscores the complexity of the situation and the potential for miscalculation.

“Counter to what President Trump has said, Iran did not pose an imminent threat to the U.S. Iran has no long-range missiles that can reach the U.S.”

American Friends Service Committee

After a month of conflict, assessments indicate that Iran still retains the ability to strike, despite ongoing military operations. This suggests that the campaign to dismantle Iran’s capabilities will likely be protracted and complex.

The situation remains highly fluid, and further developments are expected in the coming weeks. Investors and policymakers are closely monitoring the conflict, assessing the potential for further escalation and its impact on global markets and regional stability.