Using Goals as a Predictor: A Formula to Solve the Game Trend
A unique solution has emerged to predict the trend of a football game – a single formula that takes into account the number of goals. This formula has the potential to revolutionize the way we approach football predictions.
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Now, let’s explore how the number of goals correlates with the outcome of a football game. In most sports, football scores tend to be lower, with few matches producing high-scoring results like 7-0 or 6-1. This unpredictability makes it challenging to determine the game’s outcome purely based on goals. However, there is a significant connection between the number of goals scored and the result of the game. Strong teams often secure big victories, while weaker teams prioritize clean sheets. By analyzing the number of goals, lottery players can indirectly predict the game’s outcome and strategize accordingly, maximizing their chances of success.
To calculate the probability of expected goals per game and identify value bets, follow these steps:
Step 1 – Find the Average Number of Goals per Game
Each league has its own average number of goals per game. For instance, the Philippine Football League averages 5.75 goals, while the Spanish second division has an average of just 1.71 goals per game. Determine the average number of goals for both teams in the particular game you want to bet on. Online resources provide easy access to this data. To provide further context, let’s examine the average points per game in major European leagues: the Premier League (2.4 goals per game), Serie A (3.21 goals per game), and La Liga (2.85 goals per game).
Step 2 – Calculate the Probability
Once you have the average number of goals for both teams, use the Poisson distribution as a prediction model for over/under betting. Refer to the table created by renowned scholar John Haig in his book “Taking Chances.” This table calculates the probabilities of scoring 2, 3, 4, or more goals based on the average number of goals per game.
For example, if the home team has an expected average of 1.2 goals and the away team 0.8 goals, you can determine the probability of scoring under 2.5 goals. Identify the specific score combinations that result in a win for under 2.5 goals (e.g., 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, 0-2). Consult the probability table and multiply the probabilities of each corresponding score.
Combining the probabilities of all possible scores leading to under 2.5 goals gives you the overall probability of the match ending with fewer than 2.5 goals. In the example above, the calculation would be as follows:
13.5% + 16.2% + 10.8% + 12.96% + 9.9% + 4.2% = 67.56%
Step 3 – Identify Worthwhile Odds
Now that you have the statistical probability of under 2.5 goals in hand, you need to determine the odds that make a bet worthwhile. To convert probabilities to decimal odds, use the formula: Decimal probability = 0.95/probability (assuming a 95% return). In our example, a probability of 67.56% translates to a decimal odds value of 1.41.
Given that both teams have a low scoring average of just 2 goals, the possibility of a low score of 2.5 goals is unlikely. Only when the odds offered by the gaming company exceed 1.41, does betting under 2.5 goals become valuable. It is essential to note that this formula does not guarantee winnings, but it provides a strategic betting approach that improves long-term profitability.
By using the calculated theoretical odds and comparing them with the odds published by sports betting organizations, one can identify games with higher betting value. Combining fundamental analysis with these odds calculations will significantly enhance your winning rate and increase the potential for financial gain.
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Using the number of goals to predict the trend of the game can easily be solved with a single formula
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Football scores are usually low compared to most sports and there are very few games with a lot of goals like 7-0, 6-1, which makes the result very unpredictable and too chance . In fact, the result of the game is related to the number of goals scored. When a strong team wins, it often scores a big score, while a weak team wants to score points and first the ball must be kept clean. Therefore, lottery players can indirectly predict the outcome of the game by judging the number of goals scored, and realize the curve to save the country.
Below is a brief step-by-step guide on how to calculate the probability of expected goals per game and convert it into an index to find value bets.
Step 1 – Find the average number of goals per game
In different leagues, there is a big difference in the average number of goals per game. The average number of goals per game in the Philippine Football League is 5.75, while the average number of goals per game in the Spanish second division is as low as 1.71. So, the first thing you should do is find out the average number of goals per game for both sides in the game you want to bet on.
This relevant data is now easily found online. To give further insight, let’s show the difference in average points per game in the main European leagues: the Premier League has an average of 2.4 goals per game, Serie A has a staggering 3.21, while La Liga has an average of 2.85 the goal of the game.
Step Two – Calculate the Probability
Given the chance of scoring goals, the statistic uses a Poisson distribution as a prediction model for over/under betting. The famous scholar John Haig created a table in his book “Taking Chances” (Chinese translation “The Mathematical Principles of Chance”), which calculates the number of goals scored by a team based on the average number of goals per game, 2, 3 , 4 and more ball probabilities.
In a match where the home team has an average expected goals of 1.2 and the away team 0.8, then using the table above it is easy to determine the probability of goals under 2.5. First determine the exact score that will result in a smallball 2.5 betting win (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, 0-2) and find the respective scores for both team from the above probability table, and then multiply to find the probability of each score.
Knowing the probabilities of the various possible points that would lead to a 2.5 under the ball win, you can then add them to get the probability of ending the match with a goal under 2.5, which in turn leads to betting payout probability under 2.5 under the ball. In the example above, the specific calculation is as follows:
13.5% + 16.2% + 10.8% + 12.96% + 9.9% + 4.2% = 67.56%
Step 3 – Find the odds worth betting on
Now that we have determined the statistical probability of getting less than 2.5 goals in a game, the only thing left to do is to decide which index you can accept. To convert probabilities to decimal exponents, use the following simple formula (assuming a 95% return):
Decimal probability = 0.95/probability
In the example above, a probability of 67.56% equals: 0.95/67.56% =1.41
In this example, because the number of goals scored by both teams is low, the total is only 2, and the probability of a low score of 2.5 must be low. Only when the index published by the gaming company is higher than 1.41, the betting value is only 2.5, otherwise the loss outweighs the gain. Does this mean lottery players can use a formula to secure winnings? Obviously impossible. But such an easy to follow betting strategy, with realistic expectations, will ensure profitability over the long term.
Use the calculated theoretical index to compare with the index published by the organization. If the difference is big, it means that the game has a higher betting value. If you can combine the analysis of the fundamentals, you will significantly increase your winning rate and increase the possibility of winning money.
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