Vaping Causes Teen Smoking Surge: UK Study
E-Cigarette Use Reverses Decline in Youth Cigarette Smoking Likelihood, Study Finds
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New research reveals a concerning trend: while traditional cigarette smoking among UK youth has historically declined, this progress is being undermined by the rise of e-cigarette use.
Historically,societal attitudes towards smoking have undergone a meaningful transformation,moving away from widespread social acceptance. This shift, coupled with various public health initiatives, has contributed to a notable decline in cigarette smoking prevalence among young people.Researchers analyzing data from three UK birth cohorts – the National Child Progress Study (NCDS), the British Cohort Study (BCS), and the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) – observed this trend.
The study highlighted changes in risk and protective factors over time. As a notable example, the percentage of teenagers who had started drinking by the age of 16 or 17 decreased from 94% in the NCDS to 83% in the MCS. Similarly, the average age at which mothers completed their education rose from 15.5 in the NCDS to 17 in the MCS. Parental smoking also saw a dramatic reduction, falling from over 70% in the NCDS to 27% in the MCS, with fewer mothers continuing to smoke during pregnancy in the MCS and BCS compared to earlier cohorts.
Key risk factors for teen smoking, such as drinking before 17 and higher levels of externalizing behaviors, remained consistent across cohorts. Protective factors, like greater engagement with education, also persisted.
The Impact of E-Cigarettes on Smoking Habits
To understand the evolving landscape of youth smoking,researchers calculated the predicted probabilities of cigarette smoking for an “average” 16-17-year-old,incorporating all identified risk factors from the intergenerational data.This probability stood at 30% in the NCDS and 22% in the BCS.
Though, the introduction of e-cigarettes has complicated this picture. Among teens in the MCS who had never vaped, the probability of cigarette smoking was around 1.5%. In stark contrast, for those who reported current vaping, this probability surged to 33%.
“This probability is especially concerning given the recent increases in e-cigarette use prevalence among UK youth, despite some initial assurances that e-cigarettes would have little appeal to them,” stated the researchers.
Reversing Progress: A Cause for Concern
The study’s findings indicate that the historical decline in the likelihood of youth cigarette smoking has not continued for e-cigarette users. Youth who had never used e-cigarettes had an estimated less then 1 in 50 chance of reporting weekly cigarette use at age 17. Conversely, those who had previously used e-cigarettes faced over a 1 in 10 chance. For teens reporting current e-cigarette use, the likelihood of also reporting current cigarette use was almost 1 in 3.
“In this very way, the decline in the likelihood of cigarette smoking is waning for youth who have used e-cigarettes – about half of our sample – and has reversed for those currently using e-cigarettes,” the researchers concluded.
Future Directions for Public Health
The researchers acknowledge limitations, including the inability to account for sociodemographic factors like race and ethnicity due to insufficient sample sizes in earlier cohorts. They also emphasize that the associations between vaping and smoking in the MCS are not causal and should not be interpreted as such, particularly as the temporal sequencing of vaping and smoking is not explicitly detailed.
Nevertheless, the findings underscore a critical public health challenge. ”Among contemporary youth, efforts to reduce cigarette smoking should focus both on those who are currently using e-cigarettes and on the prevention of e-cigarette use among youth, to maintain the promising declines in youth nicotine use in years to come,” the researchers advised. This suggests a dual approach is necessary: addressing current e-cigarette users and preventing uptake among non-users to safeguard the progress made in reducing youth nicotine consumption.
Source: Mongilio, J. M., et al. (2025). Risk of adolescent cigarette use in three UK birth cohorts before and after e-cigarettes. Tobacco Control*. doi.org/10.1136/tc-2024-059212