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war | US Institute: Ukraine must prepare for summer offensive

The USA announces billions more in aid. Russian attacks are feared in Kyiv. More information in the news blog.

The most important things at a glance

US Institute: Ukraine must prepare for summer offensive

3:10 a.m.: With the US arms deliveries now promised, Ukraine will first have to stabilize the front lines and stop further Russian advances before it can go on the offensive itself, estimates the American Institute for War Studies (ISW). Its daily assessment on Friday said: “Ukrainian forces must repel the Russian summer offensive and prevent Russian forces from making operationally significant progress in the summer months before Ukrainian forces will be in a position to contest the larger initiative and later to conduct a counteroffensive in 2024 or 2025.” Russia is already preparing for American arms deliveries and is adapting its strategy accordingly.

Another challenge for Ukraine is the difficult situation with personnel. New recruits must first be trained and existing troops must be rebuilt. According to the ISW’s assessment, the decisive factor for possible counter-offensives in Ukraine is how further aid from the West will turn out. “Whether Ukraine can regain all of its territory in the long term depends on numerous future decisions in the West, in the Kremlin and in Kiev,” says the American think tank’s analysis.

Lawyers for the Russian deputy defense minister want to appeal

11:10 p.m.: According to a report by the Russian news agency Tass, lawyers for Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov are appealing against a pre-trial detention order against him. A Russian court ruled on Wednesday that Ivanov must be remanded in custody for two months because he is suspected of accepting bribes. According to Russian media reports, 48-year-old Ivanov faces up to 15 years in prison. Ivanov worked in fuel and energy companies and in the Moscow regional government before moving to the Defense Ministry in 2010. In 2016 he was appointed deputy minister.

USA announces new military aid worth billions

7:05 p.m.: The US government has promised Ukraine a new billion-dollar military aid package for the long-term supply of weapons. The USA wants to provide Kiev with additional weapons and support worth six billion US dollars (5.6 billion euros) to defend against Russia’s war of aggression, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced on Friday.

Lithuania’s president calls for increased military spending by NATO countries

3:51 p.m.: After Poland, Lithuania has now also demanded higher military spending from NATO member states. “We must work together to convince our NATO partners to increase defense spending,” said Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda at a joint press conference with his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda. The two presidents attended a joint military exercise between the two countries’ armed forces in the so-called “Suwalki Gap”, a strategically important area on NATO’s eastern flank.

Duda recently suggested that NATO should require its members to spend at least three percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense annually. Nauseda said he agreed with Duda that the current target of two percent of GDP is not enough in these “dynamic and complicated times.” Lithuania admires its neighbor Poland, which spends more than four percent of its economic output on defense, and is currently looking for ways to achieve this goal as well.

Fear of attack: Kyiv evacuates clinics

3:36 p.m.: The Ukrainian capital Kiev has announced the evacuation of two hospitals due to fears of Russian attacks. According to the city administration, the hospitals, including a children’s clinic, are being evacuated “urgently” because a video is circulating online that announces a hostile attack on these medical facilities. Claims that military personnel are housed in the hospitals are “an absolute lie.”

Moscow: Train bombed with Western weapons in Ukraine

2:02 p.m.: Russia says it has bombed a train carrying weapons supplied by Western countries in eastern Ukraine. On Thursday, the Russian armed forces hit “Western weapons and military equipment” that had been transported by train in the Donetsk region with rockets and artillery, the Defense Ministry in Moscow said. Railway facilities in the Kharkiv region in northeastern Ukraine were also targeted.

Ukraine: Agriculture minister released from prison after paying bail

1:55 p.m.: In Ukraine, the highest anti-corruption court ordered Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyj to be remanded in custody on suspicion of illegally appropriating state-owned land worth millions and released him shortly afterwards on bail. The preventive detention was scheduled this morning until June 24th.