How will Stephen Curry’s shoulder injury affect Golden State’s season? Will they drop into the play-offs for the second time in three years?
Although according to “Woj God” Adrian Wojnarowski, Curry’s absence is expected to be “several weeks” rather than several months as previously assumed by various circles, but compared to last season’s strong start, at the same point in time. With 24 wins and 5 losses to take the league leader, this season the Warriors no longer have the room to adapt and cushion, and the number of wins is also 10 games less.
For the Warriors, the most frustrating thing is that in addition to the unsatisfactory record so far, this record is still a result of Curry’s health when he was on the team. Curry had missed just three games before the shoulder injury, and the Warriors lost all three.
Last season, when Curry was absent, the Warriors’ record was 8 wins and 10 losses; when Curry played, they were 45 wins and 19 losses, with a winning percentage of 70%.
Given that the Warriors are still mired in the quagmire on the edge of the playoffs, and the next schedule is not easy to play, it will not be easy to return to the leading group in the Western Conference where it is. the powers rise this season.
So, how much will Curry’s absence affect the Warriors?
Poolea more important role
Leaving aside the Warriors’ mediocre record thus far, Curry’s personal performance this season is undeniably MVP-level. The absence of games for the next few weeks will affect his MVP status first, and he will need to continue to have the same hot performance in the second half of the season.
When Curry is on the court, the Warriors are a first-class team, outscoring opponents by an average of 7.0 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA Advanced Stats. This number is actually not as good as their performance last season, when Curry was on the court last season, the Warriors had a net rating of +10.7.
But if you want to find the biggest gap between last season and this season, it definitely lies in the performance of the bench. Last season, relying on Jordan Poole breaking out of the cocoon and taking on the role of playmaker, the Warriors’ performance when Curry retired was almost equal to that of their opponents (net efficiency value -1.4). But so far in the 2022-23 season, due to the decline in Poole’s three-point line firepower, they will lose to their opponents by an average of 11.1 points per 100 possessions when Curry is out.
In light of this, the Warriors have recently refined the second team rotation, allowing Poole to play more at the same time as Draymond Green. According to the Glass Cleaning database, the lineup combination of playing Poole and Green at the same time without Curry has become one of the highlights of the Warriors’ bench lineup, with a net efficiency value of +6.6; Without Curry and Gwyrdd on the court, the Warriors’ net score plunged to -11.4.
Given that Curry’s absence will allow Poole to continue to get starting opportunities, he should be able to match up more with Green and other more stable Warriors starters, so for head coach Steve Kerr, the most in the coming weeks The challenge is scheduling when Poole is out for a break.
According to the NBA’s official advanced data, so far this season, the Warriors have played only 74 minutes in a lineup without Curry and Poole. During this time, Ty Jerome, who signed a two-way contract with r Warriors, the organization over ■ The heavy responsibility of the team’s offense.
The Warriors’ backcourt rotation can be expected to be even tighter in back-to-back situations, as Klay Thompson has not played back-to-back games since returning from ACL and Achilles tendon injuries. In Thompson’s absence, the Warriors need sophomore Moses Moody to take on more responsibility.
Unknown West End smash
Before Curry was injured, the Golden State Warriors still had plenty of time to regroup and climb back to the top of the Western Conference leaderboard. According to the FiveThirtyEight database’s calculations and predictions, before Curry was injured, the Warriors’ projected record could be placed fourth in the Western Conference.
If you look at ESPN’s advanced data BPI (Basketball Power Index), the situation of the Warriors is not really very optimistic. The average result can only be placed seventh in the Western Conference, but there is still a 40% chance to avoid the playoffs.
In addition, the most important thing is that FiveThirtyEight and BPI made similar predictions: the battle in the West will be very fierce, and changing the result of just one or two games can cause a big blow to the ranking.
In FiveThirtyEight’s projected rankings, the Warriors and the six teams behind them have fewer than three wins, and the average ranking is between fifth and tenth. The BPI results were similar, with the Warriors sandwiched between six teams on their roster, all within about three games of each other.
Both prediction systems agree that the Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Pelicans, and Phoenix Suns, the four teams currently in the leading group in the Western Conference, will eventually become four top seed in the division with home field advantage. There are only six playoff tickets left, and don’t forget that the Los Angeles Lakers are still watching, and it is very likely to wait for an opportunity to swim against the current.
