Portugal: Another democratic government falls. Faced with an increasingly unequal West, the PS government accommodated itself and watched the spread of inequality and disillusionment and opened space for neo-fascism. Result is a new warning for Lula’s Brazil
Supporters of the Democratic Alliance react to the first results of the elections in Portugal
Image: Pedro Nunes/Reuters
Certain defeats are especially painful. Next April, Portugal will experience the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution under a right-wing government and strong pressure from a neo-Salazarist party. For nine years, the country was, along with Spain, a shy oasis, in a Europe where ultra-capitalist and xenophobic political forces are advancing. Yesterday, the experiment was stopped.
In early parliamentary elections, the Socialist Party (PS, center-left) and the coalition called Democratic Alliance (AD, right-wing) reached a virtual draw. Each obtained around 30% of the votes and 80 representatives in the Assembly of the Republic1. But in third place came Chega, from the ultra-right, which reached more than 1 million votes (18%) and quadrupled its bench, now with 48 parliamentarians. The Left Bloc (BE) and the CDU (which includes the Communist Party-PCP), shrunk, received less than 5% of the votes and were reduced to 5 and 4 seats respectively. Starting this Tuesday (12/3), President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will listen to party leaders and “indicate” [pré-indicará] the future prime minister, tasking him with forming a new government. Everything indicates that he will be the leader of the AD. Either in a government without an absolute majority, or – much worse – in alliance with Chega.
The rise and decline of Portuguese progressivism, from 2015 onwards, are a consequence of an incomplete attempt to confront neoliberal policies. While this confrontation lasted, it produced electoral victories and enthusiasm. From the moment it weakened, the way was open for the ultra-right forces, who are exploiting the crisis of democracy throughout the world, to advance on Portugal. Therefore, there is a clear parallel with Brazil – where it is still not clear whether the Lula government will be able to substantially improve the living conditions of the majority, or will get bogged down in the search for the “fiscal adjustment” desired by the financial markets and implemented by the Ministry. from the farm.
Few countries suffered the consequences of the “austerity” imposed by the European Union after the 2008 financial crisis like Portugal. The banks were saved; but public spending severely cut; and the welfare state, devastated. Attacks on social rights have spread unemployment and, in particular, precarious work among youth. The response was to two impressive demonstrations, called almost spontaneously, by small groups of activists. In March 2011, the Geração à Rasca protest brought 300,000 people to the streets in Lisbon and Porto. In September 2012, called by Que se Lixe a Troika, more than 1 million marched, in several cities, to the sound of “Grândola, Vila Morena”, the song that triggered, in 1974, the Carnation Revolution.
But three long years passed before the repudiation of “austerity” had repercussions on the political system. It happened almost by chance. Socialists, Bloco de Esquerda and communists ran separately, and with very different programs, in the 2015 parliamentary elections. The traditional right led, but did not form a majority in Parliament. The PS tried to reach an understanding with her, but failed and was attracted by another possibility: that of forming a coalition with the BE and PCP, forming a government. The coalition was unexpected. Both in Portugal and in the rest of Europe, social democracy and parties of the Marxist tradition rarely walked together. Therefore, in a debate in Parliament, right-wing deputies pejoratively called the possible novelty “Geringonça”. But the chance to turn the page on policies that were devastating the country ended up prevailing. “Geringonça” became a government – and took on the name…
For some time, it produced real changes in Portuguese politics. There was an increase in wages above inflation (especially the minimum wage), recovery of pensions, some regulation and protection of precarious work, improvements in public health. Privatizations were interrupted and, in one emblematic case (TAP) reversed. In the new environment, new social mobilizations emerged, especially anti-racist and feminist ones – later interrupted by the pandemic.
But the harsh forces of globalization interrupted this brief Portuguese spring. The European Union (EU) blocked public investment and the more effective recovery of social services. The main setbacks in labor legislation were never reversed. Under pressure, the PS conformed to the dictates of Brussels. In 2019, when there were new parliamentary elections, there was no longer the climate to reissue Geringonça. The socialists governed alone, with only occasional support from the left. In 2022, a serious disagreement over the Budget once again separated the three parties and forced early elections to be called, which again resulted in a solo PS government.
Then, Chega was already emerging, a product of the ultra-right wave that, in the wake of Trump, was advancing across the West. In Portugal, two of its striking characteristics are racism and, in particular, xenophobia. In a country where public services have never recovered, the party sees immigrants (among them, Brazilians, victims of increasing violence) as a scapegoat capable of ruling out the debate on new policies.
The final term of the socialists, led by Prime Minister Antonio Costa, was melancholic, points out Marxist economist Michael Roberts on the blog The Next Recession. As is the case today in Brazil, the government believed in large private capital as a springboard for the advancement of the economy. Deregulatory measures sought to attract foreign funds – especially for the real estate market and a wave of tourism that sees Lisbon as a hype destination. Always in search of external capital, the government launched golden visas, which grant the right of permanent residence to foreigners who invest more than 500 thousand dollars in real estate; and favorable visas for digital nomads interested in establishing their work base in the country.
Instead of a solution, money has become a crucial part of the problem, Roberts continues. In the central areas of the cities, thousands of Portuguese people were expelled from the houses they rented – now offered to foreign tourists, in commercial leases. There are 48 thousand properties in these conditions in Lisbon, and 750 thousand throughout the country. The last governments did nothing to face the situation, to rescue public health (impoverished by the pandemic) or to sustain the recovery of workers’ purchasing power. The average salary in Portugal is the sixth lowest among the 38 OECD countries — but the country had the biggest increase in property prices in the group. By appealing to xenophobia, Chega has a full plate in front of him.
Antonio Costa resigned on November 7th, in an episode that has been poorly explained to this day. In an operation to investigate alleged corrupt acts related to investments in energy transition, the Public Ministry seized documents from its office. The prime minister denied “the practice of any illicit or objectionable act”. Even so, contradictorily, he stated that his stay in the post “became impossible” – and he left the post, without any law or rule obliging him to do so. Days later, the same Public Prosecutor’s Office stated that the investigation was due to having confused the Prime Minister with a homonym…
President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, a conservative, immediately accepted the resignation. He could appoint a new prime minister, but preferred to call new elections. They bring yet another bitter result. But they show: in the West, democratic forces, and especially the left, have to change course if they do not want to be swallowed up by the ultra-right wave.
