The 2026 WM Phoenix Open is set to begin Thursday, February 5, 2026, at TPC Scottsdale in Arizona, and all eyes are on Scottie Scheffler, the current world No. 1, who is the heavy favorite at +240, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. This year’s field also includes Xander Schauffele (+2000), Cameron Young (+2200), Si Woo Kim (+2200), and Hideki Matsuyama (+2500).
TPC Scottsdale, located just outside of Phoenix, is a par-71 Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish design that opened in 1986 and has hosted the Phoenix Open every year since 1987. The course measures 7,261 yards and is known for its party-like atmosphere, particularly around the stadium-seated 16th hole.
The tournament is expected to be a test of ball-striking, with a premium placed on approach play, scrambling, and distance off the tee. Winning scores have been 14-under or better every year since 2010, and last year’s champion, Thomas Detry, finished at 24-under.
Key Stats for TPC Scottsdale
Strokes-Gained Approach Over Last 24 Rounds
Success at TPC Scottsdale strongly favors players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach. According to data analyzed by Dimers, the top five players in this category are Si Woo Kim (1.625), Austin Smotherman (1.527), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (0.926), Eric Cole (0.891), and Matt Fitzpatrick (0.882).
Scrambling Rate
While approach play is crucial, scrambling ability is also important at TPC Scottsdale, given the tight greens and surrounding hazards. The top five players in scrambling rate are Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Ben Griffin, and Rasmus Hojgaard.
Strokes-Gained (Course History) at TPC Scottsdale
Course history is a significant factor at the WM Phoenix Open. The top five players in Strokes Gained at TPC Scottsdale are Scottie Scheffler (2.591), Xander Schauffele (2.292), Rasmus Hojgaard (2.163), Brooks Koepka (2.072), and Hideki Matsuyama (2.040).
Birdie-or-Better Gained Percentage Over the Last 24 Rounds
Recent trends show that players are scoring at remarkable rates, making birdie-or-better percentage a key statistic. The top five players in this category are Scottie Scheffler (1.900), Garrick Higgo (1.668), Si Woo Kim (1.349), Matthew McCarty (1.087), and Ben Griffin (1.071).
WM Phoenix Open Model Rankings This Week
A model developed by SportsLine, factoring in strokes-gained approach (20%), scrambling (15%), birdie-or-better gained percentage (10%), strokes-gained off-the-tee (10%), course history (10%), strokes-gained par-4 (8%), strokes-gained putting (7%), strokes-gained total (5%), good drive percentage (5%), and history at comparable courses TPC Sawgrass and TPC Summerlin (5% each), ranks the top 10 players as follows:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Si Woo Kim
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Rickie Fowler
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Ben Griffin
- Xander Schauffele
- Cameron Young
- Garrick Higgo
- Viktor Hovland
2026 WM Phoenix Open Picks
Si Woo Kim +2700 (DraftKings)
Si Woo Kim is off to a strong start in 2026, with finishes of T-11, T-6, and T-2 in his first three starts. He currently leads the field in strokes-gained approach and is also performing well off the tee and in scrambling. He has also shown improvement at the WM Phoenix Open in recent years.
Viktor Hovland +3700 (DraftKings)
Viktor Hovland is making his first PGA Tour start of 2026 at the WM Phoenix Open, but has been showing good ball-striking in three starts overseas. He finished his 2025 season on a promising run.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +10000 (Bet365)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout is trending in the right direction, with a T4 finish at the WM Phoenix Open in 2025. He is currently third in both strokes-gained approach and scrambling, and is also performing well in putting.
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