WTO rejoices in global trade recovery after COVID, with a chance of 10.8% growth, concerns about vaccine distribution still high
Mrs. Pimchanok Pittfield, Ambassador Thailand’s Permanent Representative to the World Trade Organization and the World Intellectual Property Organization (WTO) has raised its forecast for world trade growth in 2021 to 10.8 percent as a result of economic recovery. word as well as the fact that WTO member countries tend to use less trade restrictions. and use more trade facilitation measures This is a good sign of Thai exports. that should be able to expand at a high level this year Although the first half of 2021 will still expand below the world export expansion. And exports will be the hope of driving the country’s economic recovery.
Mrs. Pimchanok continued that the key risk factor was to stop the spread of the coronavirus. which still faces several bottlenecks. In addition, trade in services has been slow to recover. In the first half of 2021, travel contracted by 62 percent due to travel restrictions. Therefore, tourism cannot be the engine that drives the Thai economy in the short term.
According to the study, 1.WTO expects global trade to grow 10.8 percent in 2021 and 4.7 percent in 2022, and global trade value will rise above pre-COVID-19 trade value. So far, 19. With an increase in global economic activity in the first half of 2021, the global GDP growth forecast for 2021 has been revised up to 5.3 percent from the 5.1 percent forecast in March. There is also an important momentum from the reduction of trade restrictions around the world. and use more trade facilitation measures in 2020. Based on futures market price data They show that crude oil, copper and steel prices continue to rise. Since the end of 2020, it is a sign of global economic recovery.
2. The Goods Trade Barometer jumped to 110.4, the highest since the WTO began calculating the index in 2016, reflecting a rebound in global trade. All of the sub-indices were above trend values, such as the Air Transport Index. container transport Manufacture of automobiles, except electronic components index That is slightly reduced from the shortage of semiconductors. And the export order index also dropped slightly. Coupled with the Goods Trade Barometer expanding at a lower rate. Shows that global trade may be nearing its peak. and will not increase as before
3. In the first half of 2021, Thai exports grew slower than world exports. World exports grew by 17 and 45 percent in the first and second quarter of 2021, respectively, while Thailand grew by 2.1 and 31.85, respectively, as shown in Table 1. further pushing exports
4. The multi-regional import market grew strongly in line with rising global trade trends in 2021, especially South America, which is expected to grow the most at 19.9 percent, followed by the CIS and North America at 13.8 percent. and 12.6, respectively, although Europe expanded at 9.1 percent. However, in 2022, the Middle East and European markets will return to the highest growth of 8.7 and 6.8 percent, respectively. Thai measures and activities to promote trade from now on until next year Therefore, the focus should be on these highly rebounding markets.
5. Products with high trade growth during the second quarter of 2021 include automotive parts. iron and steel This is an advance signal of the global economic recovery. and household goods such as toys, games, sports equipment, furniture, handbags, clothing and shoes.
6. Trade in services expanded more slowly than trade in goods. The service trade contracted by -9.0 percent in the first quarter of 2021, caused by a -62 percent contraction in travel, due to restrictions on international travel. WTO’s service trade is 102.5, indicating that service trade volume is slowly recovering. In particular, tourism will not be able to be a hero driving the economy.
7. Trade will not expand equally between different regions of the world. Poor countries will experience slower trade and economic growth. While high-income countries experience faster trade and economic growth. This is because the main cause is unequal production and distribution of vaccines. (Currently, only 6 million doses of the vaccine are produced and distributed. and the proportion of the population in low-income countries receiving one-dose vaccine is only 2.2 percent) and may also be a source of virus mutation. In addition to the vaccine Poor countries still have debt problems (Sovereign debt) that is increasing day by day. causing these countries to bring the national budget to pay debts and there is not enough public health budget. This includes the purchase of other essential goods. The IMF released a report that found 34 poor countries had high levels of public debt. Most of which are located in Africa and the Pacific Ocean countries, including Lao PDR.
“World trade from the end of 2021 to 2022 is likely to expand. but how fast In addition, the service sector, led by tourism, aviation, and transportation, still needs time to recover. As for the product sector, there are still some negative factors, such as a shortage of semiconductors. that makes some products may be reduced in production As for the recovery in each region around the world, it will not be equally slow. Therefore, Thailand’s export policy should be consistent with different regions,” said Ms. Pimchanok.
