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2026 Automotive Predictions: Planning for Uncertainty

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U.S. President Donald Trump and CEO‍ of Ford Jim Farley clap, as President Trump⁢ visits a Ford ‌production center, in Dearborn, Michigan, ‍U.S.,January 13,2026.

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

DETROIT – The ⁢only⁢ consistency has⁣ been inconsistency for the U.S. automotive industry during the first half of this decade – a trend that’s ⁤expected to ⁢continue amid‌ challenging market conditions in 2026.

The U.S. auto sector -‍ a crucial driver ⁣of the economy estimated around 4.8%‍ of‍ America’s gross domestic ​product – has endured‍ rolling crises as the Covid-19 ⁤pandemic shuttered U.S. assembly ⁢plants in​ early 2020. the global⁣ health crisis was followed by yearslong supply chain issues, semiconductor chip‌ shortages, political ‍whipsawing,⁤ tariffs and other challenges for all-electric and autonomous ​vehicles.

Automakers have been surprisingly resilient during the challenges, but those ‌issues are now combining with more traditional⁤ industry problems of affordability ⁤and ​slowing⁢ consumer demand. That’s all creating a more challenging environment for automakers in 2026.

“we’ve⁤ got to plan for the worst ⁢and ⁣hope ‍for⁢ the best,” Hyundai​ North‌ America CEO Randy Parker told CNBC during an interview. “That’s the situation that ‌we’re in right now.”

Other⁣ executives have expressed similar sentiments as they prepare ⁣for a “new” U.S.automotive industry: one that’s more expensive, smaller ‌and, by many means, less predictable.

Automotive forecasters are calling for⁣ steady to lower sales this year, despite‍ industry sales only hitting 16.3 million units last year. That was the highest level since the pandemic⁤ in 2020, but down from more​ than 17 million for five consecutive years before the global health crisis, according to industry data.

“Anyone in the auto industry … we should all ​be very careful about consumer demand,”⁤ Ford Motor

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