Algorithm Aims⁣ to Broker Peace ⁤in Israel

‍Updated June 18, 2025

Can we measure ⁢what is in our hearts and minds, and could it help us end ⁣wars any ⁤sooner? These are the questions that drive Shawn guttman, a Canadian ⁢entrepreneur who left his ⁢teaching position in Israel to accelerate a‍ path⁤ to peace using an algorithm.

Guttman, ⁢living north of Tel Aviv,‍ is familiar with the uncertainties of‍ conflict. Recent miscalculated drone strikes have landed near his town, sending him to bomb shelters.

“When something big happens, we can point to ‍it and ⁣say, ‘Right, that happened ‍as five years ‍ago ⁤we did A, B, and C, and look at it’s effect,’” he said. “I’m tired of that perspective.”

His ⁣startup, Didi, aims to analyze data across news outlets, political ⁤discourse, and social ‍media to identify opportune moments to broker peace. inspired by I. William⁢ Zartman’s “ripeness” theory, the algorithm—called the Ripeness⁣ Index—is designed to tell negotiators when conditions are “ripe”⁣ to initiate⁢ peace negotiations.

During U.S.-led ⁢negotiations over the war in Gaza, both israel and Hamas have entrenched themselves in opposing bargaining positions. Israel’s‍ allies, including⁤ the U.S., have expressed frustration over the war and the‍ dire‍ humanitarian conditions, where ⁤the threat ‍of famine ⁤looms.

In⁤ Israel, Didi’s data informs grassroots organizations⁢ as they strategize which media outlets to target and how to time public actions. Guttman ⁣and‍ his collaborators hope negotiators will use the model’s insights to help broker lasting peace.

Guttman’s project is part of⁢ a rising wave of PeaceTech, using technology to make negotiations more inclusive ⁢and⁣ data-driven. Hala Systems ⁢uses satellite⁣ imagery to monitor⁣ ceasefires in Yemen and Ukraine. Remesh helps organizations canvas key stakeholders by clustering similar ⁢opinions.

The Computational Democracy Project created Pol.is, an open-source platform that ‍enables citizens to crowdsource⁤ outcomes to‍ public‍ debates. The ‍Futures Lab at the center for Strategic and International Studies built a peace agreement simulator to track how well each ⁢stakeholder’s needs are met.

Guttman knows it’s an uphill battle. PeaceTech faces ethical and privacy concerns, as well as financial⁣ hurdles amid shrinking public funding and a surge in defense spending,⁤ which has⁣ pulled resources away from peacebuilding⁣ initiatives.

In its Global Peace Index 2024,the Institute for⁤ Economics and Peace estimated that economic disruption due to violence cost the world $19.1 trillion in 2023. Guttman sees commercial potential in times of peace as well.

“Can⁢ we make billions of dollars,” Guttman asks, “and save the world—and create peace?”

the Ripeness Index

Every evening, Didi’s bots scrape the websites⁢ of 60 Israeli and 30 Palestinian media outlets, ⁢digesting keywords into‍ its Ripeness Index model. The index aims to distill the complex dynamics of Israeli-Palestinian social unrest into simple categories,indicating when the time may be right to push for peace.

If the center of ‍the index⁣ is red, it signals that conditions are not yet ripe for negotiations. yellow indicates that both sides ⁤are beginning to recognize that⁢ the costs of continuing the conflict outweigh⁤ the benefits.

In early May,‍ Guttman and his cofounder, Keren Winter-Dinur, worked ⁣with a team of developers‍ to put the system through its biggest test ⁢to date at the People’s Peace Summit⁣ in Jerusalem,⁤ organized⁣ by the It’s Time coalition.

Many of the summit’s events are “talking about, ‘hey, Israelis, learn about and understand what palestinians are going through,’” Guttman says. The “ripeness” ⁢theory⁢ of negotiation proposes that conflicts become ripe for resolution when two conditions are met: a “mutually ⁤hurting stalemate” and that both parties perceive a ⁣“way out” of ⁤the conflict.

Researchers have tried to quantitatively ‍validate Zartman’s theory on past‍ diplomatic negotiations using big datasets ⁣around conflict resolution. Still, quantitative studies around ripeness theory remain limited.

When they launched Didi in 2022, Guttman and Winter-Dinur began by testing their Ripeness⁤ Index model on the Troubles in Northern ⁢Ireland leading up⁤ to the 1998 Good Friday⁢ Agreement. They found that ‍support for negotiated peace increased just ‍before⁢ key political partnerships formed, ⁣while support for continuing armed struggle diminished.

then October 7th happened. Guttman and Winter-Dinur knew they needed⁤ to pivot to Israel’s war. They began localizing their training database in Hebrew and⁤ Arabic and ⁣started scraping regional news. Their dataset now extends⁣ back to September 26, 2023.

“I said, ‘Let’s jump into the deep waters and ⁢see how ⁢we do,’” Guttman recalls.

As it scans the ⁤news media, the bot tracks specific terms associated with each section⁣ of ⁣the Ripeness index, such ⁣as confident in winning or willingness to compromise. ⁢For the It’s Time ⁣coalition, the model also tracks mentions of affiliated organizations.

Guttman believes grassroots organizations should be using⁤ this data every⁤ day to spread pro-peace messaging ⁢to the public,⁢ alongside documentation of wartime atrocities, and to challenge the belief that military victory is necessary.“We should be moving as fast as the⁢ news cycle ⁣moves,” he says.

What’s next

Didi plans to continue⁤ refining its Ripeness index and expanding its reach to⁣ other conflict zones, hoping to provide valuable insights for peace⁤ negotiations worldwide.