America at the Crossroads: What’s Hanging in the Balance in the US Election

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris agree on one thing: this presidential election is the most significant and consequential vote in decades. In fact, much is at stake. America has a choice: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. The decision whether the Republican or the Democrat will move to the Oval Office in the next White House is very significant not only for the country, but also for the world. And amid the spectacle and folklore of the US election campaign between fries, stars and little agitators, what is at stake in this vote is sometimes lost: American democracy in 2020, Trump brought democracy and USA constitutional structure for the country. edge of collapse. The system barely held up when the Republicans questioned the result of a fair and free election and tried with all their might to overturn it. All this ended with a violent attack by Trump supporters on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 – an unprecedented attack on the heart of American democracy. Once again, Trump is spreading claims without evidence that the Democrats could steal a victory from him by fraud. This time too, it is becoming clear that Trump is not likely to accept a possible defeat and may try to prevent a peaceful transfer of power from Biden to Harris. And: In recent years, Trump loyalists have been promoted to many inconspicuous positions that are important for the certification of the election results by the individual states. If Trump calls for resistance against a possible election defeat again, he may be more successful this time than he was then. And if Trump wins? He flirts with the fact that he only wants to be “dictator on the first day” of a new term in office. In fact, the USA could become dictatorial under him. During the election campaign, Trump often threatened to take action against political opponents if he won the election, appoint special investigators against them, indict them and even put them in prison – for example Democrats or journalists high status. He constantly describes the media as “enemies of the people” and wants to revoke the licenses of undesirable broadcasters. He has just incited people with a violent public fantasy about one of his party’s biggest internal critics. And most recently he even spoke in favor of using the military against “enemies within” – namely against “radical left-wing enemies”, and he cited prominent Democrats as an example. Concerned about the statement about domestic military operations, Trump’s former chief of staff, John Kelly, publicly revealed that the Republican had made positive comments about Hitler several times during his time in office and said in a conversation that he wanted military men as loyal to “Hitler’s generals.” Trump’s team bluntly rejected the account. Inner peace in the USA The political mood in the USA is extremely tense. This vote is the first presidential election since the dramatic upheaval four years ago. There are fears and internal warnings from the security authorities that violence could break out again: unrest, growing protests and targeted disruptive actions by violent extremists. The situation has already worsened: in mid-July, a man shot at Trump from a nearby roof at a campaign event in Pennsylvania, wounding the Republican in the ear. The perpetrator was shot by security forces and a visitor died. The Secret Service is also believed to have thwarted another assassination attempt on Trump in Florida a short time later. This shows how dire the situation is – in all directions. Meanwhile, Trump himself continues to stir things up, warning of alleged electoral fraud in the same way as in 2020 and has been encouraging his supporters for months. In the spring, he made provocative statements at a campaign appearance in Ohio. The former president talked about how he wanted to make it harder for Chinese cars to be sold on the US market. Then Trump suddenly said: “If I’m not elected, there will be a bloodbath.” The excitement was great. Trump’s team weighed in and criticized the quote for being taken out of context. The pattern is not new: a targeted provocation by Trump, followed by an announcement from those around him that it was all just a joke or meant something entirely different. In recent polls, many Americans – especially in the battleground states – have expressed concern that there could be political violence after Election Day. The future of Ukraine and the security of Europe There is also a great deal at stake internationally. During his term in office, Trump turned his back on many international allies, sought closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin and other autocrats and threatened to withdraw the United States from NATO. The Republican says he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours before he was sworn in – also thanks to his good relations with Putin. It can therefore be assumed that, in a deal according to Trump’s idea, Ukraine would have to give up parts of its territory. At the same time, Trump has indicated that if re-elected, he would dramatically reduce or stop support for Kiev – and has indicated that he would give Putin a free hand in his neighborhood . During the election campaign, Trump said that “the president of a great country” once asked him if the USA would protect this country from Russia even if it did not pay its defense spending. He replied: “No, we will not protect you.” What’s more, it would “even encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they want.” A joke? Taken out of context? In any case, such statements have the potential to make some in Ukraine even more concerned about the future of their country and some in Europe about the security of their continent. Without the help of the USA, any country could hardly defend itself against a powerful adversary like Russia. World order If the foundations of American democracy were to fail domestically, it would cause permanent damage to the USA’s position in the world. And if, in a second Trump presidency, America no longer feels obliged to defend freedom against conquests like Russia in foreign policy, then this could also have an impact on the balance in the international order. Who would fill the void? What if Putin actually felt emboldened by Trump to invade elsewhere? What if others follow Moscow’s example – for example, if China makes good on its threats to annex Taiwan? Trump has been in power for four years without democracy in the United States and the whole world falling into the abyss. But a lot has happened since then. Trump has become even more extreme. Many moderate Republicans have turned away from him. In another term in office, he would probably have much less moderate forces around him, but rather radical conservatives who would only encourage him to take extreme positions.