Boomcession: Why the US Economy Feels Bad Despite Good Numbers

The U.S. Economy presents a perplexing paradox: robust growth figures juxtaposed with widespread financial anxiety. This disconnect has given rise to a new term, the “boomcession,” coined by Matt Stoller of the American Economic Liberties Project, to describe a situation where economic output surges while many Americans feel left behind. The term, a portmanteau of “boom” and “recession,” highlights a growing chasm between macroeconomic indicators and the lived financial experiences of ordinary people.

What’s in a Name?

The “boomcession” isn’t entirely new. It echoes the “vibecession” of 2022, which captured a similar disconnect between positive economic data and negative consumer sentiment following the pandemic. It also aligns with the concept of the “K-shaped economy,” illustrating how economic recovery and hardship can diverge sharply depending on income bracket. However, Stoller argues his framework aims to move beyond simply acknowledging the feeling of economic unease and focus on the material hardships faced by those outside the uppermost echelons of American society.

Traditionally, strong GDP growth has correlated with improved consumer sentiment. But that relationship has broken down in recent years, a phenomenon KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk describes as unprecedented in her 40 years of experience. This divergence is prompting economists to re-evaluate how economic success is measured and experienced.

Inflation, Not Created Equal

A key driver of this disconnect is the uneven impact of inflation. While overall inflation rates have been a focus of monetary policy, the reality is that consumers experience inflation differently. Data shows that lower-income households face higher rates of price growth, particularly for essential goods like groceries and shelter. A Morgan Stanley analysis found that these two categories constituted a disproportionately large share of lower-income consumers’ spending in 2024.

This isn’t a recent phenomenon. Research from the Atlanta Federal Reserve indicates that food prices rose approximately 9% more in poorer areas than in wealthier ones between 2006 and 2020. Stoller suggests that increased competition among grocers in underserved communities could help mitigate this disparity. He argues that monopolization and price discrimination contribute to a system where those benefiting from economic growth experience different prices than those struggling to make ends meet.

Recent initiatives from President Donald Trump aimed at lowering the costs of housing and pharmaceuticals reflect a political awareness of affordability concerns. However, despite these efforts, and Trump’s claim of “virtually no” inflation, data continues to show rates above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

A ‘Hiring Recession’

Beyond inflation, concerns about the job market are weighing heavily on consumers. Economists have described the current labor landscape as a “jobless boom” and a “hiring recession,” characterized by a low rate of job openings and a cautious approach to hiring. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has termed it a “low hire, low fire” environment.

While the stock market has continued to rally, benefiting higher-income individuals who are more likely to own stocks, the labor market is tightening for many. December job openings fell to their lowest level since 2020, despite the overall economic expansion. This creates a sense of insecurity for those without financial safety nets.

The gap between corporate profits and employee compensation has also widened to a record high, further exacerbating the feeling that economic gains are not being shared equitably. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey reflected this unease, falling near all-time lows last year.

Economic output per worker hour reached new highs in 2025, but this may signal a shift towards increased automation and potential job displacement. Companies like Nike, Amazon, and UPS have announced significant layoffs, with overall layoff announcements surging more than 200% from December to January, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

‘Multiple Experiences Can Be True’

The perception of a recession is widespread, with nearly 60% of Americans believing the U.S. Is currently in one, according to a Guardian-Harris poll conducted in December. This skepticism extends to government economic reports, with fewer Americans trusting federal data than did just months prior. A recent Snap Finance survey revealed that around 41% of individuals with credit scores below 670 and 54% of those in households earning less than $50,000 annually described their financial situations as “unstable” or “very unstable.”

Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, cautions against dismissing aggregate economic data, emphasizing its importance for informed policy decisions. “Multiple experiences can be true,” she said. “The economy can be doing quite well, and millions of people are pretty uncomfortable in it at the same time.”

The “boomcession” underscores a fundamental challenge in understanding and addressing economic well-being: the need to look beyond headline numbers and acknowledge the diverse and often unequal experiences of Americans in a rapidly changing economic landscape.