Ukraine has already lost many of its fighter jets. But how critical are aerial attacks?
The delivery of western fighter jets to Ukraine is still controversial among the allies. But the calls for more air support are getting louder – and not just from Kiev. During a trip to Ukraine, US experts emphasized the importance of dominance in the air.
Dmitri Alperovych, a former Pentagon adviser, Rob Lee, a British military scientist, and Michael Kofman, a researcher at the Center for Naval Analysis in the US, looked at the course of the war – and compared it to American tactics. Her assessment: “America would never have fought like this.” Instead, one would have counted on attacks from the air: with carpet bombing on mined terrain and on trenches “before the first soldier is even sent out,” said Alperovytsch in the podcast “Geopolitics Decanted”. But Ukraine did not have this opportunity.
F-16 operations come with challenges
According to the experts, Ukraine is expecting the delivery of F16 fighter jets, but is certainly aware of the challenges. “These are big – they have to modernize their airports to use the F-16,” Alperovych said. People in Ukraine are more optimistic about Swedish “Gripen” jets. “Just give them to us and we’ll show you what we do with them,” Alperovych quoted the Ukrainian military as saying. But planes alone were not enough.
British Marshal: Ukraine has only half its helicopters left
On Thursday, Marshal Rich Knighton, chief of staff in the British Air Force, said at the Global Air & Space Chiefs’ Conference 2023 in London that Russia still has almost its entire air force at its disposal – but that neither Moscow nor Kiev have sovereignty over the airspace .
This is not only due to the possible availability of fighter jets and helicopters, but also to the dense Ukrainian air defense system. At a conference, the Air Force Marshal presented figures: Russia still has 96 percent of its 2,021 aircraft and 90 percent of its combat helicopters. Losses would be 86 aircraft and 90 helicopters.
Ukraine, on the other hand, was hit harder. It only has 78 percent of its fighter jets and bombers – but Kiev only has 314 airplanes and 31 helicopters. The number of helicopters has even shrunk to 48 percent. For every 15 Ukrainian planes there are 100 Russian ones. Knighton relied on figures from the British government and the independent site Oryx, which lists material losses in the Ukraine war.
Ukraine’s main combat aircraft are Russian: the Su-27, the multi-role Mig-29 and the Su-25. And although Poland and Slovakia recently donated spare Mig-29s, access to spares remains a logistical problem.
The British Marshal also sees no decision in the air so far. The advantages of Ukraine at the moment are in defense. Going on the offensive means a “massive challenge without air superiority and without hitting the enemy deep in the rear.” Nevertheless, the control of the airspace is of great importance. “You can’t attack without air control,” Knighton said.
Air defense of great importance
In June, the head of the US Air Force in Europe, General James Hacker, emphasized the importance of air defenses at the beginning of the war. “All the equipment that the 45 nations offered to Ukraine and transported by truck would never have gotten there if Russia had had air superiority,” Hecker said, according to BusinessInsider.
