CHICAGO (Reuters) – China, which has greatly eased its “no coronavirus” policy, will see an explosive increase in the number of new coronavirus infections over the next year, and the death toll may exceed 1 million. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine provided such a forecast based on the latest model prediction results released on the 16th.
The number of infected people is expected to peak around April 1 next year, and the number of deaths is expected to reach 322,000, according to the report. IHME Director Murray said that around a third of China’s total population would be infected by this point.
Chinese health officials have not officially announced any deaths since the zero-corona policy was relaxed. The total number of deaths reported by the authorities so far is 5,235. Currently, there are concerns that the number of infections will increase during the Lunar New Year holiday in January next year, when many people travel.
Mr Murray pointed out that the sero-coronavirus policy could have prevented infected people up to a certain stage of mutation, but the emergence of the highly infectious Omicron strain made it impossible to maintain the policy.
IHME model projections included assumptions about death rates in Hong Kong, vaccination rates provided by the Chinese government, and local responses to rising infections.
Another expert said that around 60% of China’s population will eventually become infected, with infections peaking in January next year, with the elderly and other people at high risk of serious illness being hit hardest.
The relaxation of the sero-coronavirus policy could lead to 684 deaths per million people between December and January, according to projections by researchers at the University of Hong Kong released on Thursday. Assuming no mass booster vaccinations, this equates to 964,400 deaths across the population.
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