Expect the Fed to raise its policy interest rate in March. this
Date 23 Jan 2022 time 20:43
Expect the FOMC meeting on 25-26 Jan. The Fed is not expected to signal anything more than the start of the policy rate hike in March. which the market has already known
Kasikorn Research Center estimates that amid the pressure from inflation that continues to accelerate and the US labor market Entering full employment) The Fed is expected to continue the cycle of raising interest rates in March 2022, as many Fed officials have signaled earlier. Supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages in the US It is likely to remain unrelenting in the near term. In addition, world oil prices tend to remain at high levels continuously. Amid tight supply and geopolitical risks between the world’s largest oil producers, tensions are rising. resulting in US inflation It is likely to remain at a high level going forward. while the US labor market There has been a continued strong recovery. by the unemployment rate in Dec. 2021 dropped to a level below 4.0% at 3.9%, reflecting the US labor market. has entered full employment while the impact of the omicron strain is expected to be a drag on the US labor market. just temporarily And overall, the labor market is still strong.
in the upcoming monetary policy meeting The Fed is expected to continue to signal nothing more than the start of a policy rate hike in March. which had already signaled before and the market was already aware of it. to wait and see the economic outlook and inflation amid the uncertainty that remains both in terms of risks from geopolitical problems covid epidemic and bottlenecks in the global supply chain while having to follow up on the next monetary policy meeting in March which is expected to raise interest rates for the first time Also at the monetary policy meeting in March Economic projections and policy rate adjustment projections (Fed Dot Plot) will be published. Markets will have to monitor whether the Fed will adjust its stance on raising the policy rate from 3 to 4 this year as some markets have. forecast or not It is likely that the Fed may signal four policy rate hikes this year if the US economy continued to expand strongly and inflation remained high. The economy has more weight. Most of the Fed’s committees will likely continue to view policy rate hikes three times this year.
for the impact on the baht Kasikorn Research Center considers Markets have been aware of the Fed’s policy rate hike signal to some extent. If the Fed doesn’t send more hawkish signals at the upcoming monetary policy meeting, It is expected that it will not affect the money market and capital market much. while the covid situation in the country In addition, the relaxation of control measures and measures to accept tourists will be factors that support the trend of the baht’s appreciation.
