Recently, there have been a lot of military actions around the world, including actions in Europe and East Asia. China Broadcasting Network approached Liang Yongchun, a military observer, to analyze multiple incidents in detail.
Why has the “Lublin Triangle” become an anti-Russian “vanguard”?
Event: Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine called themselves the “Lublin Triangle”. The presidents of the three countries met in Ukraine on December 20, claiming to support Ukraine’s entry into the European Union and NATO, and jointly oppose Russia’s “aggression”.
Liang Yongchun, military observer of China Broadcasting Network, said: The more fierce the conflict between Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine and Russia, the greater the value for the United States, and the more opportunities for politicians from these small countries to get from the United States. Some benefits, this is their main purpose against Russia. At present, if Russia wants to develop its economy, it must have a stable surrounding environment and it must cooperate with the EU. Before, Russia and Germany managed to build the “Beixi No. 2” natural gas pipeline. Now it has been shelved because of the Ukraine crisis and cannot be used. This is a lose-lose situation for Russia and the EU. If Russia continues to fight against small countries such as Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine, it will be even more inconsistent with its own interests. Of course, if the United States and NATO repeatedly violate Russia’s security interests, Russia will inevitably step up its military response, and may even station troops or deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus.
In fact, for European countries such as France and Germany, they are unwilling to have a major conflict with Russia. Therefore, they are relatively low-key on the Ukrainian issue, which is in sharp contrast to the so-called “Lublin Triangle” countries. Last week, Russia announced a “draft security treaty” to the United States and NATO. In fact, this is a clear bottom line for peaceful coexistence. The purpose is to reassure European countries that Russia’s current military actions are passive responses. , And there is no attempt to expand. Therefore, to a certain extent, EU countries are now the key factor. If they do not succumb to the United States and stop blindly confronting Russia, the tension in eastern Ukraine can be eased.
Germany will expand its military deployment in Asia. What signals will it send to the outside world?
Event: German Navy Commander Schoenbach stated on December 21 that Germany will expand its military deployment in Asia in the future.
Liang Yongchun: Since the beginning of this year, the United States has continuously strengthened its military deployment in the Asia-Pacific region and hopes to bring the forces of European allies to the Asia-Pacific region and put them on the front line of confronting China. We all know that Germany is the “leader country” of the European Union, so it has naturally become a key target of pressure from the United States. Therefore, this year Germany sent a frigate into the South China Sea, but it did not enter the sensitive waters. Obviously, it wanted to find a balance between China and the United States. The United States is certainly not satisfied with this, so it must force Germany to do more in confronting China next year. On December 21, President Xi Jinping and the new German Chancellor Schultz emphasized on the phone that China and Europe are two independent forces in the world, sharing broad strategic consensus and common interests. It is hoped that Germany will continue to play a positive role in stabilizing China-EU relations and continue to inject stability and positive energy into China-EU relations. Next year is the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Germany, and it is also the first year after Germany bids farewell to the “Merkel era.” Then, how to properly handle the deployment of military forces to the Asia-Pacific region will be a test for the new German government, and it will also be a test for the new German government. A “weathervane” of relationship.
Every year, tens of billions of more “protection fees” are paid. Does Japan have “a lot of stupid money”?
Event: Japan and the United States reached an agreement on December 21 on the apportionment of expenditures for the U.S. troops stationed in Japan for the next five years. Japan’s expenditure for US troops stationed in Japan is 1.055 trillion yen (approximately 71.7 billion Hong Kong dollars). Compared with the current standards, Japan will be burdened by approximately 10 billion yen each year.
Liang Yongchun: In the next five years, the strength of the US military in Japan will drop significantly. Because many of the US troops stationed in Japan have to be transferred to Guam and Hawaii, the cost of stationing troops shared by Japan has not decreased, but has increased. Is Japan being taken advantage of by “stupid people and a lot of money”? of course not. During the negotiations between the United States and Japan this time, Japan clearly requested that it should reduce the cost of living for the US troops stationed in Japan and increase the expenditures for fighting and training. These increased costs are used to build new military bases, requiring the United States and Japan to share them; second, to increase the intensity and quantity of US-Japan joint training and exercises. Therefore, some people say that Japan is paying a “protection fee” to the United States by apportioning the expenses of the US military stationed in Japan. Because from the perspective of the use of this increase in funding, Japan is adding a hidden military expenditure to itself in the name of serving the US military, and it wants to tie itself more tightly with the US military. The agreement reached between the United States and Japan on the apportionment of garrison expenses this time marks a qualitative change in the military alliance between the United States and Japan. It also shows that Japan’s military ambitions are rapidly swelling. It is trying to change its relationship with the United States from a “vassal relationship” to a “partnership.” In the future, “US-Japan military integration” will be an important security challenge we will face.
The United States approved the export of electromagnetic catapults for aircraft carriers for the first time. Why was it the target of France?
Event: The electromagnetic ejection system (EMALS) and advanced arresting device (AAG) approved by the United States for sale to France will be installed on the next aircraft carrier of the French Navy. The total amount is estimated to reach 1.321 billion US dollars.
Liang Yongchun: Not long ago, the United States snatched the contract from France to export submarines to Australia and immediately sold the carrier electromagnetic catapult to France. This was obviously a kind of compensation and comfort. The problem is that the electromagnetic catapult that the United States is going to sell this time has a lot of faults. The US military dares to export it before it understands it. Isn’t this using France as a test product? Moreover, the cost of buying a catapult in France accounts for 23% of its total investment in its new aircraft carrier, which is too expensive. They all say “slap a sweet date”. The United States slapped France this time and gave it a “sweet date.” This kind of compensation is really not a taste for France to hold it. Speaking of it, the French are also unbelievable, their own aircraft carriers have been built to the third generation, and the key technology still needs to rely on the United States. How does this look like a world power? Therefore, if we want to develop an aircraft carrier independently, we must start with independent research and development.
When two nuclear submarines are installed at the same time, why does Russia attach importance to the development of sea-based nuclear power?
Event: On December 21st, the Russian Navy’s Pacific Fleet received two nuclear submarines at the same time, namely the “Beifeng-A” strategic nuclear submarine “Oleg Grand Duke” and the “Asen-M” multipurpose nuclear submarine “Novosibirsk”. “No.
Liang Yongchun: The “Grand Duke Oleg” is a strategic nuclear submarine responsible for nuclear strikes. The “Novosibirsk” is an attack-type nuclear submarine. In the Russian military’s tactical system, it is the “sea-going bodyguard” of the strategic nuclear submarine. These two huge underwater ships served in the Pacific Fleet at the same time, marking that the upgrading of Russia’s sea-based strategic nuclear forces has entered the “fast lane.” We have noticed that Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the flag-raising ceremony of nuclear submarines this time. He should have a sense of accomplishment at that time. Because when Putin first became president in 2000, Russia was awaiting prosperity, but he was determined to increase funding and develop strategic nuclear submarines. This is what is today’s “God of the North Wind.” People still remember that Putin’s famous saying back then was “I can sell the Kremlin if needed.” At present, Russia’s military expenditure is still less than 1/10 of that of the United States, but it can still “break the wrist” with the United States. The key is to have such a strategic nuclear force that can compete with the United States. International politics is so realistic and cruel. If you want to be a world power, you must have world-class strategic capabilities.
Why did Iran hold large-scale military exercises at sensitive moments?
Event: The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps will conduct a joint military exercise code-named “The Great Prophet-17” in the southern coastal area of Iran on December 20.
Liang Yongchun: Now that the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement have reached a deadlock again, Israel has threatened to take military action. Of course, Iran will organize large-scale exercises in response to Israel. From the current point of view, the sanctions imposed by the United States do not convince Iran, and it is impossible for the United States to carry out military surprise attacks to completely eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities, so “time” is on Iran’s side. It’s just that the United States is still unwilling to admit this fact, or that the United States still wants to restrict Iran’s development by extending sanctions, which is neither legal nor ethical. For the United States, returning to the Iran nuclear agreement as soon as possible and lifting all sanctions is the only way to restore its reputation and face.
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