JAKARTA –

The Japanese Ministry of Health has revealed alarming data: the number of babies born has hit a record low, with only 720,988 births in 2024. This decline has been consistent for nine consecutive years, painting a grim picture of Japan’s demographic future.

Local authorities also report a rapidly aging population and a shrinking overall demographic, trends that have significant economic and social ramifications. These issues are not unique to Japan; similar concerns are echoed in many developed nations, including the United States, where declining birth rates and aging populations challenge future workforce sustainability and fiscal stability. Comparative examples can be drawn from European countries like Italy and Germany, which have long faced these demographic shifts and have implemented various policy measures to mitigate their impacts.

The birth rate in Japan fell by 5% in 2024, despite government efforts led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to bolster birth rates starting in 2023. The decline can be attributed to a reduction in marriages in recent years, a trend exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Takumi Fujinami, an economist at the Japan Research Institute, highlighted the impact of the pandemic on marriage rates. “Behind the decline in birth rates in Japan is a decline in marriage in recent years, which is caused by the Pandemic Covid-19,” Fujinami noted to Reuters.

Interestingly, the number of marriages increased by 2.2% to 499,999 in 2024, but this followed a sharp decline of 12.7% in 2020. “The impact can last until 2025,” Fujinami continued, indicating that the recovery in marriage rates may not adequately address the imminent demographic challenges.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, commenting on the latest demographic data, acknowledged the increase in marriages. He emphasized, however, that the decline in birth rates has not stopped. “We need to be aware that the decline in birth has not been stopped. But the number of marriages records an increase. Given the close relationship between the number of marriages and the number of births, we must focus on this aspect as well,” Ishiba said. His remarks underscore the importance of these two closely correlated metrics in addressing the population crisis.

In contrast, South Korea has seen a modest improvement in its birth rate, which increased from 0.72 in 2023 to 0.75 in 2024. This slight uptick offers hope in the midst of a demographic crisis, showing that targeted government interventions can make a difference. Japan’s average fertility rate per woman remains at 1.20, a level that, while low, indicates some stability compared to previous years. Economists warn against direct comparisons, suggesting that Japan’s strategies to address job opportunities and gender disparities might need overhaul for efficient long-term solutions. The expert puts the importance of programs similar to South Korea’s, where the government has implemented successful support systems to balance work and family life, provide childcare services, and offer incentives for businesses to support employees in becoming parents. Similarly, in the U.S., discussions around policies for family-friendly workplaces and affordable childcare have gained momentum, as policymakers recognize the potential long-term benefits of such initiatives.

For Japan, the immediate challenge is multifaceted. Economists like Fujinami suggest that the government should focus on creating more job opportunities and addressing gender disparities to encourage young people to get married and have children. Fujinami said, “It is still too early to compare the numbers between South Korea and Japan.” This highlights the complexities in tackling demographic issues.

The demographic crisis has significant implications for Japan’s society, including a potential labor shortage. An America’s shrinking youth population might also be vulnerable to such labor shortages, though it could mitigate the issue by welcoming more immigration.

Experts believe that South Korea’s positive change is the result of government support, said in a Japanese publication, referencing a study out of Japan. “Empirically, government interventions have shown positive results in South Korea,” an anonymous source revealed. These actions are seen as essential in encouraging marriage and childbearing – a model Japan might follow closely. The government initiatives in both countries focus on creating family-friendly environments, enhancing childcare and housing provisions, and promoting gender equality. These strategies echo broader global trends in addressing demographic challenges, reflecting a growing realization of their socioeconomic significance.