Krungsri Bank Estimate next week’s baht 33.90-34.70 baht per dollar The market expects the Fed, ECB to raise interest rates by 0.25% in May While Krung Thai Bank is looking at 33.80 – 34.40 baht per dollar. Keep an eye on Thailand’s inflation. If it doesn’t slow down, it could cause the BOT to move forward with interest rates.
Ms. Rung Sanguanruang, Director of Business Promotion and Global Markets Regulation Department of Bank of Ayudhya disclosed that to Nation Online Thai baht next week It is expected to move within the range of 33.90-34.70 baht per dollar. The Federal Reserve or US Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25%. to 5-5.25% at the May 2-3 meeting, which is believed to be the last hike of the cycle However, the market will pay attention to communication and signals from the Fed to assess the direction of interest rates.
In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates by at least 0.25% on May 4 in terms of economic data. Monitor April inflation in Thailand, ISM index, US manufacturing and service sectors Finish with non-farm employment (expected + 1.75 hundred thousand jobs in April).
As for the domestic financial market, it has only been open for 2 days, transactions are expected to be thin. Waiting for the results of the Central Bank meeting and various numbers that will come out during the holidays
In terms of currency movement in the region, April 1 – April 28, it was found that the won – South Korea weakened by 2.83%, followed by the peso – Philippines 2.12%, the ringgit – Malaysia 1%, the dollar – Taiwan 0.86% Yuan-China 0.61% Dollar-Singapore 0.35% Excluding appreciation-Indonesian Rupiah 2.40% Rupee – India 0.51% Baht – Thailand 0.10% Dong – Vietnam 0.04%
“The baht is moving in a narrow frame, swinging sideways. There are supporting factors such as rising gold prices in the world market. and a trade surplus in March However, capital outflows remain the pull factor.” However, in April this year, foreign investors Net sales of 5.1 billion baht in stocks and 34 billion baht in Thai bonds, partly due to maturing instruments
Mr. Poon Panichphiboon, Analyst in the Trading Room Krung Thai Bank revealed to Nation Online that looking at the baht frame next week, 33.80 – 34.40 baht per dollar, we expect the baht to tend to swing sideways with’ r 50 day EMA line at 34.30 baht per dollar. has become the first line of resistance After the baht appreciated below that level last week. While the key support zone will be in the range of 34.00 baht per dollar. If the baht appreciates outside the zone, it may easily strengthen to test the zone of 33.80 baht per dollar.
It is seen that the baht tends to move in the direction of the dollar and gold prices. which has to wait to see the results of the Fed meeting Including the results of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting In addition, it should wait to follow the economic forecasts of the United States. through the ISM PMI index report, manufacturing and service sectors
Including reports on US labor market data such as the number of non-farm payrolls and wage growth rates, etc., and in addition to such economic data reports. Financial markets can vary according to the earnings reports of listed companies.
In terms of domestic factors, we should keep an eye on the direction of foreign investors’ capital, in stock and bond markets. The number of US dollar purchase transactions to pay dividends to foreign investors may be a factor to pressure the baht to depreciate to some extent. (The dividend transaction flow in the first week of May is expected to be no less than $300 million.)
On the US side, the main highlight is the outcome of the Fed meeting on Thursday. Will be recognized during 1.00 am, time in Thailand which is a holiday from the financial markets of Thailand The players in the market will wait and follow that. If the Fed raises interest rates +0.25% as expected to 5.25% at this meeting Will the Fed indicate that it is prepared to continue raising interest rates? And if the Fed does not send such a signal Will the Fed indicate that it is prepared to hold interest rates at 5.25% longer than the market expects?
Market players will also be looking forward to the release of key US economic data such as the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, as well as Nonfarm Payroll and Average Hourly Earnings.
While in Europe, the market will wait to keep an eye on the results of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, as well as the Eurozone CPI inflation report. Be careful of market volatility during the gradual recognition of the results of the ECB meeting, because if the ECB sends a clear signal It is ready to continue raising interest rates It may encourage the euro (EUR) to appreciate further. Although European stock markets may fall. especially European technology stocks
on the Asian side Market players will wait to assess the prospects for the recovery of the Chinese economy. through the PMI index report for the manufacturing and service sectors
As for Thailand, market players will wait to follow up on the April CPI inflation report, which could affect market players’ views on the Bank of Thailand’s (BOT) policy interest rate outlook, especially if inflation does not slow down’ clear This could lead market players to believe that the BOT could continue to raise interest rates to 2% at its meeting in May. as well as following up earnings reports and forecasting the results of listed companies.
