According to Lithuanian secret services, Russia is pursuing a dual strategy: In addition to the war of aggression in Ukraine, preparations are already underway for a long-term confrontation with NATO.
According to the Lithuanian secret services, Russia is continuing its war of aggression in Ukraine and at the same time is preparing for a confrontation with NATO.
The Kremlin has initiated a comprehensive military reform and is gradually expanding its capabilities towards the West, according to the annual report from the military intelligence service and the Department of State Security of the Baltic EU and NATO country presented in Vilnius.
“Russia is allocating enormous resources to the war in Ukraine and shows no intention to de-escalate the situation, even if it does not achieve its operational goals. At the same time, Russia is preparing for a long-term confrontation with NATO, including in the Baltic Sea region,” it said it in the report. Some of the military reforms have already begun, for example in the Kaliningrad region and in the western part of Russia.
“Cold War 2.0”
“Confrontation does not mean that war is not inevitable. We should consider a long-term confrontation as a Cold War 2.0,” said Colonel Elegijus Paulavicius of military intelligence, according to the BNS agency. Large troops could appear near the border, move there and hold large-scale exercises.
According to the intelligence services, how quickly and extensively the Russian military reform can be implemented depends on the course and outcome of the war in Ukraine, which Russia could continue with similar intensity for another two years with the available resources. The Kremlin has adapted the economy to the needs of the war, which is costing more than expected. But they are holding up better than expected due to high oil prices, government investments in the military industry and the evasion of sanctions, the report said.
The secret services also assume that Russia is continuing its information war and cyber attacks against Lithuania and the other Baltic states. For example, hackers acting on behalf of the Russian military intelligence service GRU are said to be behind the information leak that occurred last year regarding the NATO summit in Vilnius. This was intended to discredit Lithuania and stir up mistrust, it was said.
