Shifting chairs in the Kremlin – Defense Minister Shoigu has to give up his post for a civilian. Behind this there are probably new priorities for the Kremlin in times of war.
A bang in the Kremlin: More than two years after the start of the war of aggression against Ukraine, Vladimir Putin fired his defense minister and close confidant Sergei Shoigu (read more here). Shoigu’s successor is to be the previous deputy prime minister, Andrei Beloussov, as the upper house of the Russian parliament announced on Sunday evening. Putin’s suggestions for the composition of the new Russian government were received there.
What’s behind Shoigu’s dismissal?
According to Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, Shoigu’s dismissal is intended as a signal to the Russian public. “This is happening for the domestic market. This is happening in order to be able to continue this war. Let us have no illusions that Putin is ready for peaceful negotiations,” the head of state of the Baltic EU and NATO country told Lithuanian media reports that night on Monday in Vilnius. “He feels he can do what he is doing. There is no other way to stop him than to support Ukraine. The most important thing is to do it quickly.”
An official reason for Shoigu’s dismissal was not given. However, there had been some speculation about a possible dismissal of the 68-year-old Shoigus, who had been defense minister since 2012. A few weeks ago, one of Shoigu’s deputies, Timur Ivanov, was arrested on corruption charges. Observers interpreted this as a sign of power struggles within the Russian military and security apparatus. Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov will remain in his place, emphasized Kremlin spokesman Dimitri Peskov. The military component in the Defense Ministry will remain unchanged even after Belousov’s appointment.
In view of the increased military spending, Putin would like to have economic expertise at the top of the defense department, said Peskov. “The defense minister should be open to innovation, to introducing any progressive ideas.” That’s why the choice fell on the economist Beloussov. “Those who are more open to innovation will be victorious on the battlefield.”
Economic expert should optimize warfare
Beloussov, who is said to have explained the importance of the digital economy and blockchain to the former intelligence officer Putin, is nevertheless, like the president, an advocate of a strong state. Duma deputy Sergei Gavrilov was quoted as saying by the Russian news agency Tass that he was “undoubtedly the best candidate” to expand the Russian defense industry complex and introduce new technologies.
The fact that Putin chose a representative of the economic wing in the Russian leadership and not a member of the powerful security apparatus is still considered a surprise. Shoigu is one of the latter forces, known as “siloviki.” This could mean that Putin is planning to win the war against Ukraine by further strengthening the arms industry and with the help of international markets, explained Russia expert Alexander Baunov. The senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center was a former Russian diplomat.
“In his way of thinking, this is logical because the economic bloc proved to be more effective in the war than the security and military apparatus,” said the expert Baunow. Putin’s strategy is therefore not to put pressure on Ukraine through the mobilization of new soldiers, but through the capacities of the armaments complex.
Kremlin spokesman Peskov also made it clear that defense spending in Russia is now so high that someone like Beloussov is the man to control the area. The defense department now occupies a key position in Russia’s security spending, said Peskov. “This requires particularly important decisions.”
Putin is changing the power structure
The previous government constitutionally resigned when Putin began his fifth term as president on Tuesday. The 71-year-old, who first became president more than 24 years ago, was confirmed in March in an election that was internationally criticized as neither free nor fair. After the reappointment of Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, who is considered an efficient technocrat with economic expertise, Putin’s further personnel plans for the new government were announced on Saturday.
The Minister Denis Manturov, who was previously responsible for the Russian war economy, will be promoted to Belousov’s position as Mishustin’s first deputy. Manturov, who headed the industry and trade department, is handing over his ministerial post to the previous governor of Kaliningrad, Anton Alikhanov. The government announced that Manturov should also be responsible for the industry in his new role.
