Risky decision in Ukraine

Good morning, dear reader,

If you would like to subscribe to the “Tagesbruch” newsletter, please use this link. Then you will receive it free of charge by email every morning at 6 a.m. And here is the daily commentary:

There are many decisions to be made in 2024, and nowhere is this pressure felt more strongly than in Ukraine. The immobility of someone seemingly stuck Treaty warfare characterized the first weeks of the year: never-ending battles in which the soldiers walk over corpses but tread water. But despite the rigidity of the lines, urgent decisions had to be made Sieg or defeat depends. They are not getting any easier now, because the front is moving – and the situation is becoming more dangerous every day.

Avdiivka fell into Russian hands last weekend. There are increasing indications that the withdrawal went badly: chaos broke out, hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers apparently didn’t make it out. Many have been killed, others taken prisoner. Or worse, both: first captured, then killed. The worrying news also includes the fact that… next line of defense things are not going well behind the fallen bastion. There are poorly protected sections of the region that must be defended by exhausted units. The Munition The artillery that would have to stand up to the Russians had already been rationed so heavily that its shortage contributed to the defeat at Avdiivka. A Russian breakthrough is considered unlikely for the time being, especially since Moscow’s troops took the town with horrendous losses. But the certainty that the Ukrainians will hold out has suffered.

The decisions that would have to be made in Kiev are therefore already subject to change. While military planners sharpen their pencils, they don’t just look east with worry lines on their foreheads. You also have to ask yourself what’s actually left of your options if that House of Representatives in distant Washington the Military aid blocked for Ukraine. “Do we even have ammunition?” After all, it is not a matter that one wants to unravel in appendix number three to the planning document.

By the end of the year, the Europeans are expected to be able to close the gap in the production of shells to some extent. Before that, however, there is a huge hole in the calendar. With the available capacity and the limited stocks in European armories, Ukraine will have a bad time, that’s for sure. Whether it’s from summer to… Collapse of defense opinions differ on this. One catastrophic defeat may not be the most likely scenario, as military expert Franz-Stefan Gady says in an interview with my colleague Simon Cleven. But the fact that this now needs to be discussed seriously should set alarm bells ringing in the EU capitals.

So the framework conditions under which decisions have to be made in Kiev are not even clear. But the clock is ticking. If American aid is finally released, what will happen will be urgently debated third year of the war should actually be the goal. Western military experts advocate a year of… Restoration and the Preparation, in which the Russians are repeatedly put under pressure, but essentially stalled. When the Ukrainian military goes on the attack, it is not just the hesitancy of Western arms support that stumbles. But also about your own feet.

The lack of modern material is not to blame for the failed offensive last summer. Some tanks were never used at all. Instead, there were problems in many other areas: for example, the soldiers had learned how to use their new equipment – but not how to coordinate in large units. The coordinated approach The Ukrainians only succeeded in small units. That wasn’t enough to break through the heavily fortified Russian lines.

Training is therefore at the top of the to-do list – even for new recruits, which is a very hot topic. Because one Conscription notice Being pressed into your hand is no longer well received. The soldiers at the front urgently need reinforcements. Most of them have been in use for years and burned out. At the same time, Moscow’s military sends more than every month to the other side 10,000 newbies into battle. The Ukrainian President Selenskyj on the other hand, dares to tackle the sensitive topic mobilization not close. Going into battle has become unpopular with many Ukrainians.

Ukraine and Russia are not only engaged in battles on the battlefield, but also in a secret race to see who can transform their army into a more powerful force in the long term. Kiev therefore urgently needs the current year for a development phase. However, the precarious political situation requires a completely different strategy. Because solidarity with Ukraine has been crumbling for a long time. Even in the EU states, When you have the Russian aggressor on your doorstep, your willingness to open your wallet for war decreases. And across the Atlantic does Donald Trump with such discontent mood for his election campaign.

Ukraine’s supporters will not have their task made any easier if there are no successes to report. And when there is a lack of offensives because entire army stocks are in the workshop for repairs. President Zelensky is therefore faced with the question of whether he can better support the war-weary Western public Success stories should keep you happy – and for that crazy storm running against the Russian positions. From a military point of view, this may be wrong, bad and irresponsible. But without support in the West Ukraine is also at the end.

We only know a small amount of this dilemma in Germany, but it also has serious consequences: Should Taurus cruise missile give the battered Ukrainians the opportunity to better defend themselves against the aggressor? Sure, of course! Do we accept that the same Taurus cruise missiles can also reach the Kremlin? Don’t! The German long-range weapon would help the Ukrainians a lot – but it could also dangerously escalate the conflict.

On Saturday it will be two years since Putin gave the order to invade Ukraine. The war is still as unpredictable as it was at the beginning. Politicians and military officials are not to be envied for the decisions that are now being made in Kiev and also in the Chancellery. Unfortunately, you never know where the tracks really lead.

Loading…

Loading…

Loading…