Recently, the bad news from the Ukrainian front has been piling up: the Russian army keeps gaining territory. The war is becoming increasingly brutal, says military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady.
The situation is getting worse for Ukraine. The Russian troops are advancing in Donbass, at the same time Russia’s air force is carrying out devastating attacks on the Ukrainian front lines and many cities throughout the country. In some places the defenders have their backs to the wall; there is a lack of ammunition supplies for the anti-aircraft defense. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s appeals to supporters are becoming more urgent.
However, that is not the only problem. In an interview with t-online, military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady draws attention to further vulnerabilities and warns: A major Russian offensive could soon be imminent.
t-online: Mr. Gady, you only visited the front in Ukraine again in March. What impressions did you have when you went home?
Franz-Stefan Gady: The Ukrainians’ will to fight seems unbroken, but there are clear signs of exhaustion. Frontline personnel are on average over 40 years old. It is a war of middle-aged men, with only a few exceptions. I also got the impression that the war is becoming increasingly brutal.
What are you up to?
There is increasing evidence of how brutally some parts of the Russian troops are led by their officers and non-commissioned officers. Soldiers who do not advance are sometimes shot on the spot. As cruel as it sounds, from a military perspective this may solve the morale problem for the Russians in the short term. But this makes defense more difficult for the Ukrainians.
(Source: Phillip Sulke)
To person
Franz-Stefan Gady (41) is one of the best foreign experts on the military situation in Ukraine. He has visited the country several times since February 2022. Gady is a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London and an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security in Washington. The Austrian advises governments and armed forces in Europe and the United States.
It appears that in some Russian units soldiers do not retreat even when wounded. For the Ukrainians, this means that they have to destroy such units down to the last man – and possibly risk their own losses in the process.
The brutalization of war is enormous and is constantly increasing. This leads to a lot of wear and tear on both sides, both mentally and physically. The consequential costs of the war will therefore be immense for Ukrainian and Russian society.
There is currently no end to the war in sight. Instead, Russian troops are steadily advancing on several sectors of the front. How would you describe the situation?
Russia is preparing a new offensive that could launch in the coming months. The main goal of the Russian army in this preparation phase is not to gain territory, but rather to inflict the highest possible losses of soldiers and material on the Ukrainians. The worrying thing is that the Russian armed forces still manage to take control of additional territory in some places.
How does the Russian army manage this?
The Russians are benefiting from Ukraine’s deficits: There is a lack of fresh soldiers – especially infantry -, well-developed defenses and, last but not least, sufficient supplies of ammunition. Russia is fueling these problems, for example, with an intensive air warfare campaign.
Video | 100,000 dragon teeth: Ukrainians massively expand defense
Quelle: t-online
The Russians want to weaken Ukraine’s anti-aircraft defenses before their offensive by using air strikes to force them to use up the ammunition supplies for their anti-aircraft systems – with some success, it seems to me. This can be deduced from the decreased firing rates. This makes the Russian Air Force feel safer: the planes get closer to the front line and can drop more of the destructive glide bombs there. There are also increasing attacks with drones, rockets and cruise missiles in western Ukraine, far behind the front.
And is Ukraine defenseless against such attacks?
No, absolutely not. Ukraine continues to defend itself with some very innovative concepts, especially when it comes to defending against drones and cruise missiles. Older weapon systems are being equipped with the latest reconnaissance technology and used to defend against Russian attacks from the air. But one must not forget that the technical component changes every two to three months: both the Ukrainian and Russian sides adapt to the opponent.
