The Impact of the Split Vote on Elections: Insights from 2016 and Trends for 2024 – MBC General Election Committee Poll Results and Analysis

In the 2016 general election, the People’s Party, which created a green sensation, obtained 26.7% of the votes in the proportional vote. It placed first in proportional votes, beating the two major parties of the time, the Democratic Party of Korea and the Saenuri Party, and the reason a third party was able to place first in proportional votes was because of the “split vote”.

In electoral voting this means voting for the candidates of the two main parties who have a relatively high probability of winning, while in proportional voting it means voting for other parties, which means distributing the votes.

Analyzing the exit polls of the three broadcasters of the time, 20.8% of those who had chosen the Democratic Party as candidate in their constituency voted for the People’s Party, while among those who voted for the Saenuri Party in their constituency In the constituency, 12.9% received proportional representation and it was confirmed that the People’s Party was chosen.

What will it be like this time?

Analysis of the second MBC general election survey showed that 27% of respondents who said they intended to vote for the People Power Party or the Democratic Party of Korea candidate in the three-party constituency vote were willing to split the vote.

In particular, it was confirmed that the intention to split the vote was high among Democratic Party supporters. It was found that 33% of those intending to vote in Democratic Party constituencies and 17% of those intending to vote in People Power constituencies were willing to split their vote.

61% responded that they would also give proportional votes to the Democratic Party, and 18% of voters in Democratic constituencies said they would split their votes between Yong Hye-in’s new party, 5% each for Yong Hye-in’s new party. Lee Jun-seok and Lee Nak. -yeon, and 3% for the Justice Party.

On the other hand, 76% of voters in the People Power Party constituency continued to vote under proportional voting, with 10% saying they would split their vote between Lee Jun-seok’s new party and the 2% of Lee Nak-yeon’s new party.

■ Who is the divided voter base?

In the past, papers studying split voting showed that the younger, more progressive, and educated a person was, the greater the intention to vote split. However, the split vote group revealed in this poll was similar but slightly different.

In this second MBC poll, the majority of respondents in their 30s and 40s were split voters, and it was relatively prominent among moderates. Additionally, among divided voters, 72% had a college degree or higher, higher than the overall average (63% of college graduates or higher).

The third poll conducted by MBC for the 2024 general election will be announced in early February and we will continue to monitor the movements of the divided voter base as the new party gradually becomes more visible.

□ What is a panel survey?

Unlike general opinion polls which interview different respondents each time, panel polls repeatedly interview the same respondents and monitor them. This is the best research method to identify when the “undecided” make a decision and who are willing to change political party.

Rather than comparing panel surveys to other general surveys, we should pay attention to changes depending on the survey.

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MBC General Election Committee Poll

Request for investigation: MBC

Research Agency: Korea Research International Co., Ltd.

Investigation period:

1 – 13 December – 17 December 2023 (5 days)

2 – 10 January – 12 January 2024 (3 days)

Objective of the investigation:

1st – Among men and women aged 18 years or older residing nationwide who are willing to participate in the panel survey / based on the demographic data of registration of residents of the Ministry of the Interior and Security at the end November 2023 (cell-weighted)

2nd – Those who wish to participate in the panel survey among men and women aged 18 years and above residing nationwide / Based on the demographic statistics of registration of residents of the Ministry of the Interior and Security as of the end of December 2023

Research method:

1st – Telephone interview/wireless RDD panel survey

2nd – Survey via telephone interview, mobile web survey/panel survey

Test measurement:

1st shift: 1,508 people

2nd round: 1,314 people

Response Rate:

1st – 4.8% (recruitment into the RDD panel)

2nd – 90.9% (telephone interview), 99.0% (mobile web survey)

Sampling error:

1st – ±2.5%p at a 95% confidence level.

Round 2 – ±2.7%p at 95% confidence level.

For more information, see the National Election Opinion Poll Deliberation Committee website.

[ MBC 22대 총선 패널조사(2차) 보고서]

[ MBC 22대총선 패널조사(2차) 통계표]

[2024 총선 패널조사 한눈에 보기]

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