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Nowadays, the rise of Bitcoin, a virtual asset, is unusual. It has risen more than four times compared to 2022, and there are both expectations that it will rise further and cautious views that the bubble is excessive.
Reporter Deok-gi Yoo reports.
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In the second half of 2020, as countries rushed to lower interest rates in response to the coronavirus, Bitcoin also peaked as a large amount of freed money flowed into virtual assets.
The decisive factor in surpassing the price at the time in about 3 years was the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF by the US stock exchange in January.
Since trading began, there has been a net inflow of $7.35 billion, or 10 trillion won, into the spot Bitcoin ETF.
[임민호/신영증권 디지털자산 연구원 : (현물 ETF) 출시 이후에 일 평균 약 3,500개의 비트코인이 ETF에 유입되는데 하루 채굴량 같은 경우에는 한 900개 수준입니다. 약 4배 정도 수준의 수급 차이가 난다고 볼 수 있습니다.]
Meanwhile, next month is the halving, when Bitcoin mining volume drops every four years.
Demand has increased significantly, but supply is only going to shrink further, so predictions that it will rise further than during the last three halves encouraged the increase further.
Optimism that the upward trend will continue for the time being due to expectations of a US interest rate cut is countered by a cautious view that there will be a major adjustment after April when the half life ends due to excessive bubbles.
In fact, Bitcoin still showed great volatility, plunging 14% after hitting its highest price.
In particular, on our exchange, Bitcoin soared to 97 million won at one time, and the difference between foreign and domestic prices of large virtual assets, the so-called ‘Kimchi Premium’, widened to a maximum of 7%.
[석병훈/이화여대 경제학과 교수 : (지금) 무리해서 가상자산에 투자를 했다가 차익 실현을 하고자 하는 욕구들이 폭발하게 되면 순식간에 가격이 떨어질 수가 있어서 큰 손실을 볼 가능성이 있습니다.]
Meanwhile, the price of gold also topped $2,100 an ounce for the first time ever.
Analysis suggests that the reason the prices of Bitcoin, a representative risky asset, and gold, a safe asset, are simultaneously reaching record highs is because the market is anticipating an interest rate cut in advance and betting on the possibility of subsequent dollar weakening.
(Video editing: Jinhoon Park, Design: Seunghyun Seo, Gyuyeon Kim, Jiwol Hong, VJ: Hyunwoo Park)
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