In 2020, the year that COVID-19 occurred, at the end of the third quarter of 2023 it was 16.2 trillion baht, or 90.9 percent of GDP. Most people are not interested. Seen as a personal matter for each person.financial behaviorof borrowers who are unable to repay the debt they themselves have incurred
This issue has never been established as the cause of an economic crisis before. So I asked a question that made you think. Is it possible that the economic crisis can come in the form of a silent danger that has been building up for a long time? spread into a problem
“Home Economics” Destroying the potential of the home economy and eroding the economy on the ground Rather than monopolizing the word crisis with problems “Macroeconomics” But only one side? To answer this question I therefore used microeconomic data. Deep data collection at individual and account level can be broken down into 5 areas as follows:
1. If you look at statistics going back 10 years from 2013 to the present, you will see that Household debtIncreased by an average of 170 billion baht per quarter, or an average expansion of 5.8 percent per quarter per year, while GDP without deducting inflation increased by 30 billion baht per quarter, or an average expansion of only 3.5 percent per quarter per year.
And if you look at the average increase in household debt over the last 4 quarters, it will be 3.6 per cent and GDP excluding inflation in 2023 will grow at 3.1 per cent per annum.
This point reflects that Household debt will definitely grow faster than GDP if we do nothing, or if we use real GDP and remove the effects of inflation. Household debt is growing even more slowly.
2. From point 1, if we continue to draw a straight line with an expansion rate equal to the last 4 quarters of household debt and GDP, we may see household debt reach 18 trillion baht by 2024, reaching 20 trillion baht, and will reach 22 by the beginning of 2025. Trillion baht by the end of 2025 and has a chance to reach 24 trillion baht by 2026.
This will make household debt proportional to exactly 100 percent of GDP (the divisor is calculated using the sum of nominal GDP for the last 4 quarters) This reflects that If we let things go accidental for no more than 3 years, we will have household debt equal to GDP. I wish my calculation was wrong.
3. Now let’s look at bad debt. Or what they call NPL and debt that is about to be lost. Or what they sometimes call SM I have to briefly explain what NPL and SM are. I used the information fromNational Credit Bureau Company Limited (Credit Bureau) Because it includes more financial institutions than the Bank of Thailand
And the principle for its account in the NPL of the National Credit Information Company Limited will draw the line at 90 days. If it is more than 90 days, it will be considered as NPL. But if it is not more than 90 day but more than 30 days , it will be counted as SM Therefore, I will use the database of the company National Credit Information Limited which has already been revealed in the media as a basis for analysis.
4. The proportion of bad debts to total loans It has been at a high level for 10 years. If you take it from the beginning of 2020 when COVID-19 happened until the 4th quarter of 2023, this proportion is 7.2 percent.. And if you take only the 4 quarters of 2023, it is found that this proportion is 7.2 percent, 7.6 per year
And if you investigate the bad debt growth rate at the end of the 4th quarter of 2023, you will see that bad debt increased by 6.6 percent per year, stemming from motor vehicle bad debt that expanded by 28.0 percent per year. , personal use debt Expanded 12.0 percent per year and credit card debt expanded 11.9 percent per year.
When counting the number of accounts with bad debts, it is found that 7.2 million accounts out of 9.8 million accounts are already in bad debt. This point reflects that The proportion of bad debts is still high. Amid the economic slowdown in 2023
Interpretation: Household debt is said to be growing faster than GDP Bad debts are also growing faster than household debt. and it can grow even more when the economy continues to show signs of slowing down.
5. In terms of debt that is about to be lost, about 600 billion baht at the end of 2023, expanding as high as 17.8 percent per year. Guts found that this is due to the expansion of household debt to 31.1 percent per year, personal consumption debt is expanding 24.1% per year, other debts
Such as motorcycles, cooperatives, nano finance, hire purchase, etc., expanding 22.6 percent per year Automobile debt expanded 7.6 percent per year if the number of accounts is counted. They found that almost 2 million accounts, out of 2.2 million in debt, were about to go into default.
In addition, it was also found that the status change rate from debt on the verge of losing to bad debt is Very High in the personal use debt group Credit card debt, home debt, and car debt. This point reflects that If bad debt expands very quickly And there is a very high rate of change of status from debt about to go bad to bad debt. It will further exacerbate the household debt problem.
From the analysis of these five points, it was concluded that GDP is recovering slowly, while household debt is increasing faster. But household debt continues to grow more slowly than bad debt. and bad debt is growing fast It is still expanding more slowly than the expansion of debt that is about to go bad.
It means the fire is spreading. There is a chance that the outbreak will become stronger, stronger and spread faster. And let’s not forget that the economy is now technically halfway into recession. Therefore, there is a high chance that people will get more in debt. Because income cannot grow faster than expenses. What is alarming is the recovery of debt outside the system, where there is no information about how much the amount of debt outside the system has increased.
So my answer is If the economy continues to grow below household debt and bad debt continues to grow at high levels, it is inevitable that the people who will be most affected will be the poor, people on low incomes , and people with uncertain incomes, and houses and cars must be cheaper. Foreclosures, auctioning off second-hand houses and second-hand cars are like wildfires that could lead toeconomic crisishousehold level
Do not forget that the past 5 Thai economic crisis It never came in its original form.
This article is the personal opinion of the author. It is not bound to be the opinion of the organization it is associated with.
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