The Tokyo stock market is expected to fall on the 11th. Semiconductor stocks were the focus of attention in the Tokyo market today, as large-cap high-tech stocks such as Nvidia, which had been driving stock prices in the US, were sold to take profits on the view that the progress too fast. it is expected to drop significantly.
The much-watched US employment statistics released on the 8th indicate a slowdown in the jobs market, and the market is almost pricing in an interest rate cut by the US authorities in June. On the other hand, there are growing expectations that the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy within the month, and the foreign exchange market is likely to move towards a stronger yen on speculation that the differential will the interest rate is narrowing, which is likely to weigh on export stocks.
- The average Nikkei futures settlement price (denominated yen) on the Chicago Futures Market (CME) was 38,785 yen, 725 yen lower than the closing price of regular trading on the Osaka Exchange (39,510 yen).
- Major US stock indexes fall – US 10-year bond yield falls about 1 basis point to 4.07%
The views of market participants
Shoji Hirakawa Chief Global Strategist at Tokai Research Center Tokyo
- US employment statistics show that the unemployment rate is rising and the situation is not very good, so long-term interest rates in the US are falling. In contrast, there is growing expectation that the Bank of Japan will raise negative interest rates as early as this month, and the Yen is appreciating. There is no sign that the dollar/yen will recover in the foreign exchange market, and until we see the results of Bank of Japan policy next week, it will be difficult to buy in the stock market due to concerns about the appreciation of the Yen.
- There is no doubt that semiconductor stocks will be sold significantly. Defensive stocks and sectors that have been slow since the beginning of the year, such as electric power, land transport and air transport, can be bought.
- As for bank stocks, short-term bond yields have been rising recently, but 10-year bond yields have not risen as much recently, and the yield curve is flattening. For this reason, it is not clear whether it is necessarily positive for banks’ profits, and there is a possibility that it will not be bought much today.
background
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