Tsai Mingzhang’s point of view: Omicron’s opportunities and threats give marine stocks a lifebuoy | Anue Ju Heng-Taiwan Stock News

The theme of today’s report is “Omicron’s opportunities and threats are given to shipping companies a lifebuoy.”

Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that once he was bitten by a snake, he was afraid of grass ropes for ten years. This is fully reflected in the attack of the new crown variant virus Omicron. Risk assets such as global stock markets, oil prices, and Bitcoin plummeted for the first time, and the new crown epidemic continued Over the past two years, mutant viruses have appeared constantly. This time, Omicron, which is twice as infectious as Delta, spread, and the virus spread in South Africa.

The financial market has been afraid of grass ropes for ten years. As long as there is a snake-like figure, you will be afraid. The power of Omicron has been exaggerated by the media. In mild cases, the hospitalization rate has not really increased. The next 2 to 3 weeks are critical. It is expected that vaccine manufacturers will provide preliminary results of the effectiveness of Omicron vaccines, and learn more about the mortality, severe disease rates and transmission characteristics caused by Omicron. Therefore, The financial market remains uncertain for a period of time.

Governments of various countries blocked the border at the first time, preferring to kill a thousand by mistake rather than letting one person go. The South African government honestly and quickly exposed the Omicron epidemic, but it was banned by other countries from entering the country. This is also a ten-year fear of grass rope panic, which is harmful to economic recovery. Not good, but it will also prevent the spread of the virus.

Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that the global stock market will naturally fall first and then rise. Before the release of Omicron data in the next 2 to 3 weeks, the leading indicators of financial market observation look at the trend of the South African currency. It is generally believed that there are 8 million people living with HIV in South Africa. It accounts for 13% of the country’s population and is the most infected country in the world. Its immunity is declining, which has led to the continuous emergence of variants of the new coronavirus.

The South African currency fell sharply to 16.3 yuan, the biggest decline this year, symbolizing the expansion of Omicron’s threat. However, it strongly appreciated by 1% on Monday to 16.1 yuan, and Omicron’s crisis eased. U.S. stocks rebounded on the electronic market, and Taiwan stocks held the quarterly line. The 10-day and monthly lines of the South African currency are about 15.8-15.6 yuan. If the South African currency appreciates to the above-mentioned price before the Omicron data is released in the next 2 to 3 weeks, it is very likely to imply that the situation will not Deteriorating, global stock markets will have room for a rebound.

Taking Taiwan stocks as an example, they rebounded from the bottom of 16,162 points to a maximum of 17,986 points and rebounded 1,824 points. Half of the retracement was at 17,074 points. This position is also close to the quarterly support. Taiwan stocks should defend. On the contrary, the South African currency will continue to depreciate in the next 2 to 3 weeks and hit a new high. Global stock markets, including Taiwan stocks, may rebound briefly before bottoming out.

Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that risks and opportunities are two sides. Omicron also brings investment opportunities. The most direct is epidemic prevention stocks and vaccine stocks. Masks and cleaning products are intuitive investments, but the epidemic dividend has been fully reflected in the past two years. , Evergrande (1325-TW), a mask manufacturer, last year had an EPS of 23 yuan, which rose from 15.4 yuan to 216 yuan, a 13-fold increase, but in the third quarter of this year, it turned to EPS and lost 0.29 yuan, compared to only 3.18 yuan in the first three quarters. The reason is that the supply of masks has exceeded demand, and the gross profit margin in the third quarter has dropped to 11% from 70% in the third quarter of last year.

Taiwan’s vaccines are likely to be behind schedule. The high-end vaccine (6547-TW) has not yet been certified by Europe and the United States, let alone against Omicron. Biotechnology stocks are just picking up news hotspots and driving up stock prices. Omicron’s real investment opportunities are in the supply chain shortage and expansion. Governments’ blockade policies will cause shortages or even interruptions in the supply of chips, raw materials, and shipping.

On Black Friday last week, the leaders of the general industry collapsed. Only the world’s largest container ship, Denmark’s Maersk, bucked the trend. Maersk controls one-fifth of the world’s seaborne cargo transportation, which is indicative. The outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020 is also the first to rise.

The Omicron virus may have saved the share price of shipping, because after the global shipping stocks surged several times this year, they have entered a sharp downward correction. Container Sanxiong Evergreen (2603-TW), Yangming (2609-TW), and Wanhai (2615-TW) have fallen by more than 60% from high to low. Although they have rebounded, they are not in the first half of the year. The main reason is that the market thinks it is good. The situation is over, and the freight rate is bearish. However, Omicron has added new variables. China will host the Beijing Winter Olympics in February next year. Remembering the lesson of the Tokyo Olympics in Japan being dragged down by the epidemic and delayed, the Chinese government is determined to eliminate the epidemic.

China has recently adjusted its crew isolation regulations, requiring crew members to be quarantined for three weeks before returning to mainland China, for another two weeks after arriving at the port, and then for another two weeks in the province where they belong, for up to seven weeks before they can be reunited with their families. In order to comply with China’s regulations, Shipping companies had to re-arrange the sailing routes, resulting in prolonged transit time and delays in crew shifts. In addition to the deterioration of the US port, shipping rates will further increase in the off-season in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year in the future.

In addition, Indian seafarers account for 20% of the 1.7 million global seafarers. The Indian government may also increase the crew’s epidemic control. Moreover, the proportion of Indian seafarers administering complete vaccines is very low. This also makes the global shipping capacity insufficient, resulting in a large freight rate. Rising, many European and American countries have boycotted the Beijing Winter Olympics. If the mainland government does not control the epidemic and the population is implemented, it is feared that countries will not take the opportunity to send players to participate. China is a major exporting country, and the world’s top ten container ports account for 7 of them. Once the epidemic prevention is restricted, the global freight rate will inevitably rise sharply.

From May to June, an epidemic was reported in Yantian Port of Shenzhen, and the local government tightened epidemic prevention measures, resulting in a rapid decline in port operation capacity and soaring freight rates. The mainland’s largest container ship, COSCO Shipping Holdings and Taiwanese container Sanxiong, set sky-high prices in early July, which has a lot to do with the Yantian Port epidemic. At that time, Yantian Port, the world’s third largest container ship, had to wait for 16 days at the port for container ships destined for Europe and the United States. , Of course, increase the freight rate, but Omicron’s virus may cause the mainland to occupy the top ten seven ports in the world, and all of them will tighten their defense measures.

Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that the SCFI freight rate increased for three consecutive weeks in the off-season, and this week is expected to increase the increase. The mainland’s largest container ship, COSCO Shipping Holdings, has its daily limit on Monday, which is the largest one-day increase since the current wave of highs. Compared with the container Sanxiong, the increase is not large. Evergreen and Yangming have completed the bowl-shaped bottom, but the neckline has not yet broken through, and there is no new stimulus factor. Omicron has given the container Sanxiong a key lifebuoy.

Freight rates in Southeast Asia surged by 10% last week. Sanxiong will benefit from the profit in the fourth quarter. Wanhai and Israel Star Shipping (ZIM) will make more profit in the fourth quarter due to the suspension of the Port of Cypriot service on the West Line of the United States and the Asian line. More, German Hapag-Lloyd raised the freight rate from Asia to Northern Europe by 70%, showing that the profits of large-scale container ships around the world have continued to grow.

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