US military experts agreed that North Korea’s claim to launch a hypersonic missile requires more detailed analysis, but if true, it could be a ‘game-changer’, a game-changing weapon system. It is said that it can penetrate the missile defense systems of the United States and South Korea by reducing fuel injection time as well as high speed and directional control ability. Reporter Ham Ji-ha reports.
In a phone call with VOA on the 29th, Bruce Bennett, a senior researcher at the Rand Institute, said that hypersonic missiles, characterized by ‘fast speed’ and ‘maneuverability’, can easily disable existing missile defense systems.
[녹취: 베넷 연구원] “Now supersonic means it’s going somewhere between Mach one and Mach five in terms of its speed, hypersonic is faster than five. An ICBM flies typically about Mach 13 or so… But the missile which North Korea is claiming is a shorter-range missile and it’s not designed to fly as far and therefore have to go as fast to give it the momentum it needs. But in theory it claims it’s kind of a maneuvering final stage of the missile, which allows it to avoid missile defenses. And the combination of its speed and that maneuvering, that’s going to be something that’s very hard for US forces Korea to deal with..”
Bennett said the speed of ‘supersonic’ missiles is generally between 1 and 5 at the speed of sound (Mach), while hypersonic missiles are known to have speeds above the speed of 5. He said that this is not the first time if we look only at ‘hypersonic’ speed, as it has test-fired missiles with hypersonic speed, including medium-range ballistic missiles.
However, he pointed out that the big difference is that the hypersonic missile, which North Korea has claimed to test this time, can be controlled at the last stage for a ‘short-range’ purpose.
He added that it could make the USFK’s response very difficult.
[녹취: 베넷 연구원] “That’s going to be something that’s very hard for US forces Korea to deal with. The Scud missile fired from North Korea into the southern part of South Korea is going to fly a little faster than Mach one, and it takes about five minutes for it to get there. So you fly a hypersonic at Mach five or six and it’s going to take it one minute to go the same distance.”
North Korea’s Scud missile, which is known to have a speed slightly higher than the speed of sound, takes about 5 minutes to reach the southern region of South Korea immediately after launch, whereas a hypersonic missile with a speed of 5 to 6 sound takes about 1 minute to fly the same distance.
Researcher Bennett said that one minute “means there is no time to alert the missile defense system”.
However, he pointed out that “there is still no proper evidence for questions such as whether this missile worked properly, whether it actually flew at a speed of 5 or more, or whether it was able to be controlled,” he said.
He also analyzed that the development of hypersonic missiles was “too fast,” and that if North Korea’s claims were true, they would have no choice but to get help from Russia or China.
David Maxwell, a senior research fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy, a former chief of staff for the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command, said that North Korea needs to be more cautious about whether the claims are true.
[녹취: 맥스웰 연구원] “We can’t really know based on its claims, it really takes intelligence analysis. And so, it’s going to be a question of whether the ROK, Japan, the US were able to detect it by satellite and by other detection systems. And then if they were, then, one of the ways is that they will be able to assess.”
Whether the U.S., South Korea, and Japan intelligence authorities discovered the missile with military satellites and other detection systems is a controversial issue, and if so, it can be analyzed under the premise.
Researcher Maxwell said that hypersonic speed means that it is several times faster than sound.
Experts also showed great interest in whether the missile is a ‘glide vehicle’.
Ankit Panda, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace, posted on his Twitter on the 28th an enlarged photo of the warhead of the missile released by North Korea, giving meaning to the fact that the warhead has wings.
Senior Researcher Panda said, “It is difficult to tell from the quality (of the photo released by North Korea), but it appears to be ‘MARV’, which may be ‘hypersonic’ and ‘gliding body’.”
MARV refers to a warhead capable of maneuvering, and is generally controlled to a desired target point using the wings attached to the warhead.
In addition, the hypersonic glide body consists of a rocket engine like a ballistic missile, and the warhead is a gliding vehicle with wings. It exhibits missile-like motion.
Senior Researcher Panda said that the lower tail wing and auxiliary engine parts of the released missiles are similar to the Hwasong-12 and Hwasong-14, and noted that the shape of the propellant is the same as that of North Korea’s existing ballistic missiles.
However, it is not possible to know just how big the missile is from the photo alone, and he expressed a somewhat cautious stance, saying that it flew only 200 km, which is a shorter distance than the Hwasong-12 or 14.
Jeffrey Lewis, director of the Center for East Asian Nonproliferation at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, also analyzed on his Twitter that the missile “looks like a Hwasong-12 has a glide-on body.”
Experts said that North Korea used the term ampouleization in announcing the launch, and evaluated that this could also be an important step.
Ampouleization is a technology that can be stored for a long time with liquid fuel injected, saving fuel injection time for missiles, enabling rapid launch.
“Ampouleization is the Russian term for missiles,” Lewis said.
“If North Korea fuels missiles in factories,[North Korean]military units don’t have to waste time in the field where the US air force could destroy them,” he said.
In addition, he said that the temperature control is possible for the missile containers injected from the factory, which is a big step for North Korea.
Researcher Bennett said that it is currently unknown whether North Korea will use the ampoule method from the launch stage, or whether it will use the ampoule method only in the warhead area to control the warhead part at the final stage.
[녹취: 베넷 연구원] “So, is that the fuel used for the whole flight, or is it only the fuel used for the warhead portion to do the final maneuvers? And that I haven’t seen any clarification yet.”
Experts also paid attention to whether North Korea’s hypersonic missiles could be equipped with nuclear warheads.
Senior Researcher Panda explained that North Korea called this missile a ‘Hwasong-8’ and called it a ‘strategic weapon’, implying its nuclear capabilities.
Researcher Bennett, on the other hand, said the first thing you need to know is how big the missile is.
He also pointed out that the diameter of the US nuclear warhead is about 6 inches and 15 cm, while the nuclear warhead in the photo released with Chairman Kim Jong-un in the past is quite large, and the size of the missile to mount it is inevitably large.
Researcher Maxwell emphasized the fact that this missile launch was a practical implementation of what North Korea had previously promised.
[녹취: 맥스웰 연구원] “I think first and foremost, it’s a following up on the January Party Congress, when they said that they were going to continue to improve their military capabilities. So, at least by their claims that they’ve tested a hypersonic missile, they’re demonstrating that they are continuing to strive to improve their warfighting capabilities.”
The most noteworthy thing is that the launch is a follow-up measure after the party congress said in January this year (8th) that it would continue to strengthen its military capabilities.
In fact, the development of hypersonic missiles was one of the directives of Chairman Kim Jong-un at the party congress at the time.
“The hypersonic missile test-firing claim shows that North Korea continues to work to improve its combat capabilities,” Maxwell said.
This is Jiha Ham from VOA News.
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