Good morning, dear reader,
Contemporary history is treacherous. Anyone who swims in the flow of their events experiences everything as final and without alternative: developments seem to take place linearly and tragically steer towards the roaring waterfall that everyone falls down. Because humans are the most highly developed living beings (or so we assume), but still have limited cognitive abilities, they tend to be in the here and now Tunnel vision. And in tunnels everything is either dark or bathed in bright light, i.e. black or white. You won’t find any shades or even colors there.
This March 2024, too, many contemporaries will be traveling in the tunnel. They only see what is happening here and now and derive the idea of all future developments from it. They are unable to imagine sudden changes in direction, switches or even abrupt changes in the overall situation.
This leads to strange events. So it happens that the german Bundestag Discussed for hours about whether a single cruise missile model could change the situation for the better for the attacked Ukraine. It happens that media devote countless lines of text and many minutes of broadcasting to a “presidential election” in Russia, even though this vote is nothing more than the cynical propaganda spectacle of a nervous dictator. And so it happens that the parliamentary group leader of the Chancellor’s party is told by one Foreign politician the opposition is poisoned, just because he dared to call for “freezing the war in Ukraine.” As if there was always only victory or defeat. As if most wars didn’t end as frozen conflicts. Anyone who is immersed in direct experience tends to believe in absolute truths, especially when it comes to momentous events: referendums, stirring conflicts and, of course, wars. This is human and understandable, but it is also short-sighted.
Contemporary history does not happen linearly, on the contrary: Most of the time, firstly, things turn out differently and secondly, than you think. Remembering this truism is not an appeal to fatalism and does not release any politician from the responsibility to take committed action. But it is an encouragement to take off your blinders and look at the course of events with a broader perspective: things can change from one day to the next, certainties can burst like a balloon, situations can change abruptly. There are few days in the year that prove this simple statement more clearly than this March, 15. Because I don’t want this text to get out of hand, I would only like to give four examples, but I would like to cover a very large historical arc:
On March 15, 44 B.C. BC The Roman dictator Julius Caesar fell victim to an assassination attempt. His successor Augustus established the longest period of peace in the Roman Empire.
On March 15, 1776 South Carolina was the first North American colony to declare its independence from the British motherland. The United States began to emerge, which later became the most powerful country in the world.
On March 15, 1917 The Russian Tsar Nicholas II had to abdicate under the pressure of the February Revolution. His successor Mikhail also abdicated the throne the next day. The supposedly eternal Tsarist Empire ended overnight.
On March 15, 1991 The Two Plus Four Treaty negotiated by the Federal Republic of Germany and the GDR with the USA, the Soviet Union, France and Great Britain came into force. The diplomatic masterpiece ended the Cold War and, along with peace and security, gave the reunified Germany the basis for unprecedented prosperity.
Regicides, separatists, revolutions and diplomatic breakthroughs are just four turning points that can fundamentally change the course of contemporary history. There are many more. And of course they can happen today just as they did back then. What does this tell us about the war in Eastern Europe?
Currently The Ukrainian army is under pressure, but just like the Ukrainians, the Russians could also Frontline soldiers go out; Not every young man is willing to risk his life for money.In June The Ukrainians are likely to be the first F16 fighter jets receive. If they have prepared the necessary runways by then, their air defense against the Russians can quickly improve.Up to 800,000 artillery shells The Czechs bought them in a covert operation in Asia and Africa. The bullets can bridge the Ukrainian ammunition shortage until the EU states finally produce enough themselves at the end of the year.Will the Ukrainians succeed? To maintain their defensive positions in the east of the country, negotiations would be necessary fire break or even one armistice no longer excluded. “We have to expect that in the end we will be left with a frozen conflict – and that the decision will not be made in battle, but at the negotiating table,” it was said at dawn almost a year ago. The probability of this scenario has not decreased, but increased.Donald Trump as the winner of the American presidential election in November would be bad for Europe, of course, but it could also turn out differently: a lot of Americans think the man is an insane crazy person; Maybe the silent majority will decide to re-elect the old but reliable one Joe Biden.
I could go on and give you more options, but you probably get the idea: The fate of Ukraine does not depend on a German cruise missile. And it’s not about total victory or total defeat. Sudden events, sudden turning points can fundamentally change the course of things, for better or worse.
Anyone who wants to help good things to break through stands by the oppressed and stands up to the aggressor. But he makes sure not to travel in the tunnel. Because anyone who only sees black and white is half blind.
Mock election in Russia
More than 112 million people are called to vote in Russia from today until Sunday evening – but of course they don’t have a real choice: Kremlin tsar and warmonger Wladimir Putin, Since, wait a minute, I’ll look again, almost 25 years in power, he has of course made sure that no one and nothing stands in the way of his fifth term in office. His three competitors, Vladislav Davankov (Deputy Head of the Duma), Leonid Slutski (Chairman of the ultra-nationalist Liberal Democratic Party) and Nikolai Kharitonov (Communist Party candidate) not only have no chance at all, but are already aligned with the Kremlin. Critics like the war opponent Boris Nadezhdin or the journalist Ekaterina Duntsova were not even admitted as candidates. The main opposition Alexei Navalny had Putin killed.
According to Russian media reports, the 71-year-old is aiming for a result of around 80 percent in the election. This would even exceed his best result of 76.69 percent in the 2018 vote. He will use any means to achieve this goal. Voters dependent on the government such as Officer under pressure to “bring” a certain number of people to the polling stations.
Three pull themselves together
Finally he stuttered violently, the much-vaunted German-French engine of Europe: After a memorable Ukraine conference in Paris Emmanuel Macron the dispatch of ground troops was not coordinated, whereupon Olaf Scholz publicly contradicted him. A fatal image of disunity that was probably only received positively in Moscow. If today the French President, the German Chancellor and the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk When we come together in Berlin, the main aim is to demonstrate unity in continuing to support Ukraine and to put aside personal vanities. The 1991 as Weimarer Dreieck The long-unused dialogue format between the three countries could be exactly the right framework for this.
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