Several German foreign policy experts are warning of further escalation by the Kremlin. The setting is a small region on the Ukrainian border.
Is history repeating itself in Transnistria? The small area on the border with Ukraine and Moldova is inhabited by 350,000 inhabitants and sees itself as independent of the Moldovan central government in Chișinău; the Kremlin has supported the separatist de facto regime for three decades. Russia has stationed regular troops in Transnistria, and thousands of paramilitaries loyal to Moscow are said to be in the breakaway region.
In a statement on Wednesday, they officially asked Moscow for “protection” from the government in Chișinău. The matter is politically sensitive. Observers fear that a new front in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine could be opened in Transnistria. There is a threat of the next military escalation by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
The CDU foreign politician Norbert Röttgen now refers to such a scenario. “In the Moldovan region of Transnistria, what many have been warning about for two years is becoming apparent: namely, that the war is expanding. In the border areas of Ukraine, too, separatists loyal to Russia initially asked Moscow for help before the annexation by Russia took place,” said Röttgen of the “Rheinische Post”.
Kremlin speaks of “protecting our compatriots”
The parallels to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, which violated international law, are indeed striking. Putin supported the separatist movements in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions before finally ordering the attack on the entire neighboring country and allowing Russian forces to invade Ukraine. This approach could be the blueprint for Transnistria.
Transnistrian opposition leader Gennady Chorba believes it is “very likely” that the separatists will soon apply to join Russia. This could happen just before Russian President Vladimir Putin’s State of the Union address to the Russian Parliament on Thursday. The US think tank ISW, citing intelligence findings, warned a few days ago that pro-Russian separatists could launch a referendum on the annexation of Transnistria to Russia.
While the Moldovan government rejected the pro-Russian separatists’ statements about alleged “pressure” from Chișinău as “propaganda”, a completely different tone came from Moscow. Accordingly, the regime of ruler Vladimir Putin made it known that it was concerned about the situation in Transnistria. Russian news agencies on Wednesday quoted the Foreign Ministry in Moscow as saying “protecting the interests of Transnistrian residents, our compatriots, is one of the priorities.”
Transnistria and its government are recognized only by Russia. The other states see the region as part of the Republic of Moldova. About a quarter of the people there are Russians, almost 30 percent are Ukrainians and the remaining residents of the almost 20 kilometer wide strip of land are predominantly Moldovans.
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Röttgen: “We have to ensure that Russia fails”
Moldova has a pro-European government and has already been granted candidate status by the EU. According to ISW, the Kremlin considers this development to be just as “unacceptable” as Ukraine’s association agreement with the EU was branded “catastrophic” in 2014.
CDU foreign expert Röttgen now links Moldova’s fate directly with that of Ukraine. He calls on the Western allies to stand up to the autocrat in Moscow. “The weaker the West appears in its support for Ukraine, the more secure Putin feels in his imperialist aspirations. In order to stop this process, we must ensure that Russia fails in Ukraine,” said the CDU politician.
