Economists at Goldman Sachs Group, a US investment bank, have estimated the timing of interest rate cuts at 6.5% after analyzing recent statements from US Federal Reserve officials and the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in January. May. Before that, it was expected to start in May.
Goldman has revised its forecast for a total of four rate cuts this year. We expect rate cuts in June, July, September and December. Previously, it was expected to be five times in total. Economists including Jan Hatchius said in a report on February 22 that they expect four more rate cuts next year. The previous prediction was three times. The forecast for the final rate (the last point of interest rates) is unchanged at 3.25-3.5%.
Hutchius and his colleagues point to two changes in the thinking of the US Federal Reserve. Officials believe that the biggest risks of past increases have passed, with strong economic data easing concerns about keeping interest rates high, meaning “there is no need to cut rates in a hurry.” I meant that.
Second, Federal Reserve officials want clearer evidence that inflation will approach 2% before cutting rates. “One reason for this is that there are concerns that the strength of the economy could undermine further progress in curbing inflation.”
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