Kasikorn Securities stated that the stock market next week has several important factors that must be monitored, including:
1.) US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting On July 27, the market is now expecting a 0.75% interest rate hike with a high probability of about 72.7%.
If the Fed raises interest rates by 0.75% as expected, the market has already received a price in. The SET’s support is expected to be at 1,525 points, but if it rises 1%, the SET’s support is expected to be 1,472 points. However, the market is starting to expect US interest rates to start to fall in 2023 to fight a recession.
2.) US 2Q65 GDP number announcementOn July 28, Fed Atlanta released its latest GDPNow model, still expecting a 1.6% contraction in US GDP.
3.) Negotiate tariff reductions on US-China imports (trade tariffs). President Joe Biden plans to talk over the phone by the end of July, estimating that if that happens, the United States will cut tariffs from China, expecting fines on only some products. Overall valuation will be positive for JWD shares. Core businesses are expected to benefit if taxes are relaxed, such as general warehouses. Dangerous goods yard, food, transport, storage room for rent The current share price has dropped 38%. We already know a lot of bad news.
4.) Follow up on the epidemic situation in Thailand after reports of monkey pox cases were found The first in Phuket was a Nigerian man. If spread widely Appraisal will be positive for rubber gloves and hospital stocks.
Meanwhile, the direction of the baht (USD/THB) is the weakest in 16 years, approaching past 37 baht or almost 10% ytd. The weak baht direction is negative for foreign flow but will be positive for the export sector. He also likes food export stocks such as ASIAN, CPF and tourism stocks CENTEL, SHR.
The drop in crude oil prices came as news of Russia returning natural gas to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline following annual maintenance. Previously, the market was worried that Russia would not supply gas to Europe. Including recession concerns, KS continues to forecast commodity prices past the peak. Overall optimistic view on stocks benefiting from lower energy prices: Anti commodity recommends BGRIM, GPSC, PTG.
Top pick stocks
– GPSC (basic price 85.00 baht) It is an anticommodity stock. who benefited from the price of energy, including oil and natural gas and expected to pass the peak point, with the 2Q/22 net profit expected to improve QoQ, driven by the ERC, increasing the Ft for the second time (May-August 2022) to 0.248 baht/unit
GE Phase 5 can resume normal operations from March 9, 2022 after the shutdown. Currently in the process of negotiating claims, the rest in 2022 may be at 600-700 million baht, with Catalyst supporting the price. Ft trend for September-December 2022 may increase by 90-100 satang per unit. (Which is a higher number than the news in mid-June 2022, expected to be adjusted 40 satang) is estimated to be positive for SPP-type power plants.
– PTG (basic price 17.00 baht) Profit for the second quarter of 2022 is expected to be at 400 million baht, will grow 150% QoQ, driven by high GPM / liter and high oil sales volume expected at 7% QoQ, support SG&A / liter, downward, expect earnings in the second half of 2022 will grow. Better than the first half from moving forward to open the city in the country
The current PTG share price Valuation is somewhat reflected from the 2023 PBV at 2.29x below -1SD, contrary to the normalized earnings and positive sentiment from lower energy prices.
In addition,Lead investors to gradually accumulate SSF funds in late July-August. This is a good time compared to the normal conditions investors tend to buy at the end of the year. Focusing on SSF funds focusing on growth and technology stocks on the US side.
The recommended SSF fund is 1.) K-Change-SSF has a stake in Biotech and other tech companies such as TESLA, MODERNA, TSMC 2.) K-USA-SSF has a high investment stake in the IT sector, approximately 45%. Next up, Communication Service group 21.6%, etc. In terms of growth and tech stocks in Thailand, KS recommends Tech Consult group, recommends BBIK, BE8.
