More than half of the economists said that the current economic situation in Korea is similar or worse than the financial crisis of 2008. They predicted that our economy would improve after 2024.
The Korean Federation of Employers published the results of a ‘recent economic conditions and major issues’ survey targeting economists (204 economics and business administration teachers, based on respondents) containing this content.
According to the survey, 52.7% of the respondents said that the current economic situation is ‘similar or more difficult than the financial crisis of 2008’. In addition, 79.4% of respondents said that next year’s economic growth rate would be below 2.0%, and the point at which the Korean economy would return to normal is expected after 2024 (77.9%).
In a survey comparing the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 financial crisis, 52.7% of respondents answered that the current economy was ‘similar to or worse than the 2008 global financial crisis’. 47.3% of the respondents said that the current situation is not as difficult as during the financial crisis in Asia or the global financial crisis.
57.4% of respondents stated that the main reason for the recent difficulties in the Korean economy is ‘global economic and political risks such as the Russo-Usu war, the US-China struggle for hegemony, and energy prices’. Next, 24.0% of respondents said ‘our economic and industrial structure depends on foreign countries’, and 11.3% answered ‘lack of prompt response by policy authorities to crises’.
79.4% of the respondents predicted that next year’s economic growth rate would be less than 2.0%, and only 20.6% answered ‘more than 2.0% ~ less than 2.5%’. There was no response that next year’s growth rate would be more than 2.5 percent. Our average economic growth forecast for next year was 1.87%.
Regarding the timing of the recovery of the Korean economy on a normal track, 53.9% of respondents said ‘2024’ and 24.0% said ‘after 2025’. Only 22.1% of respondents said it would improve next year (2023).
47.1% of respondents predicted that the recent high inflation will continue for now and will peak in the first quarter of next year (2023). Regarding this, the KEF said, “It is assumed that the reason for this is that we have judged that our inflationary trend will be prolonged due to factors such as the recent continuation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the decision of oil producing countries to cut crude oil production, etc. strong dollar.”
Reporter Ham Bong-gyun hbkone@etnews.com
