During Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Beijing, the Chinese leadership proposes a peace conference for the war in Ukraine. Is Xi Jinping losing patience with Vladimir Putin and his war?
World politics is in flux. A lot has changed since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression, including relations between China and Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will be in Beijing on Tuesday. He is probably supposed to be preparing for Vladimir Putin’s visit to China this summer, but there is plenty of need for discussion. Russia has become decoupled from the West as a result of the Ukraine war and therefore needs support from China.
That’s why Lavrov brings one thing above all to the Chinese capital: flattery. “We would like to express our highest recognition and admiration to you for the successes you have achieved over the years and especially in the last decade under your leadership,” Lavrov said to Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to Russian news agencies. China’s president was among the first “to send their congratulations to President-elect Putin, and we are very grateful to our Chinese friends for this support.”
Warm words. According to Russian state media, China is also said to have assured that it will support Putin’s “strong leadership”. Both sides emphasize that they should work even more closely together in the future. But the Russian charm offensive and the extent of Russian media reporting show one thing above all: Putin has to fight for the backing of Beijing; this is no longer a given – despite the Chinese-Russian rivalry with the West.
Western pressure on the Chinese economy through possible secondary sanctions is increasing and Xi could therefore feel pressured to work for peace in Ukraine. Beijing is now surprisingly proposing a peace summit. An invitation that Russia cannot refuse because it is dependent on China. But whether the renewed Chinese initiative should be taken seriously or whether it should only serve as a fig leaf for our own inaction – that is exactly the question.
Putin doesn’t want peace, but does Xi?
There is no doubt that Russia is currently on the rise in Ukraine. Above all, the lack of ammunition means that the Ukrainian army could lose the war, as President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized again on Monday. The US Republicans, who continue to block aid to Ukraine in the US Congress, are primarily to blame for this. That’s why former US President Donald Trump wants to visit Ukraine, according to media reports. But does Kiev still have so much time?
Russia is threatening to slowly crush the Ukrainian resistance. No reason to negotiate, at least that is the Russian perspective. In an interview in March, Putin appeared confident of victory: “Should we negotiate just because they are now running out of ammunition?” he asked. That would be “ridiculous”.
More than three weeks later, China is proposing exactly this alleged “ridiculousness” and is calling for timely negotiations. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is proposing a conference that recognizes the equal participation of both countries and at which peace proposals can be discussed on an equal footing, the People’s Republic’s Foreign Ministry announced on Tuesday.
But why now? What’s behind it? China is the only player in world politics that could put Putin in his place. This is an opportunity. But the truth is that Xi Jinping has so far refrained from doing so. Beijing does not condemn the war, sees itself as neutral and is constantly reassessing the limits of support for Russia in order not to find itself in the crosshairs of Western sanctions.
Chinese peace plan has no effect
Xi doesn’t want the Russian army to lose the war. The People’s Republic shares a 4,000 kilometer long border with Russia and it would be a nightmare for the Chinese leadership if a coup were to cause political chaos in the neighboring country. People see Putin as a guarantor of stability in Russia, although Beijing has long been surprised that the Kremlin is incapable of winning the war in Ukraine. At least that’s what t-online learned from Western diplomats.
