Presidential Power Play: How U.S. Election Results Shake Exchanges More Than Bitcoin
“Bitcoin price depends more on macroeconomic environment than political factors”
Bernstein: “If Trump wins, it will be over $80,000 in the short term, and if Harris wins, it will be $50,000.”
Although vote counting for the U.S. presidential election will not begin until after most U.S. markets close on the 5th (local time), cryptocurrency has already begun to show volatility linked to the presidential election. The previous day, Bitcoin was trading at $67,870, down about 1% over 24 hours in the U.S. market, which was analyzed to reflect the results of the weekend’s Iowa poll showing that Harris was ahead.
However, some digital asset analysts argued that Bitcoin is more influenced by the macroeconomics than the election results. In addition, it was expected that the election results would only have a short-term impact and that crypto asset exchanges linked to cryptocurrencies could move more significantly than Bitcoin itself.
According to Market Watch on the 5th, the CF benchmark index, which measures how much volatility investors expect in Bitcoin over 30 days based on futures trading, hit its highest level since early August on the 4th. This is a result that reflects the sentiment of traders that the outcome of the presidential election will influence the price of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has been considered a representative Trump trade. At the Bitcoin conference, Trump pledged to make the United States the “crypto capital of the world” and strategically hold Bitcoin. He also said he would oust Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler, who had maintained his stance on regulating cryptocurrencies, and make the regulator more friendly to cryptocurrencies.
Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chugani also said, “In the short term, if Trump wins, the Bitcoin price could exceed $80,000 in the next two months.” However, he said that if Harris wins, the price could fall to $50,000 in the short term.
Vice President Harris has expressed support for a new regulatory framework for cryptocurrency trading, but has not mentioned the topic with interest.
However, Stepathi Ouellette, CEO of digital asset platform FRNT Financial, argued that even if it falls if Harris wins, it cannot be seen as an election influence.
Ouellet said that in recent months, Bitcoin’s price has been driven much more by macroeconomic drivers, such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, than by politics.
He also said, “The election is short-term noise,” and both Harris and Trump are in the position of increasing fiscal spending while interest rates are low, so this is all helpful for the price of Bitcoin to rise.
Rather, where the election can bring greater change in the long term is on cryptocurrency trading platforms such as Coinbase Global. Coinbase is currently trying to get legislation passed through Congress that would clarify the rules the company must follow to facilitate cryptocurrency trading in the United States.
SEC Chairman Gensler is also suing Coinbase and other trading platforms for operating unregistered exchanges. Coinbase has denied violating the law.
If Trump wins, there are predictions that more friendly policies will be introduced for cryptocurrency-related systems, and this could lead to a rise in the stock prices of digital asset-related companies even before Bitcoin.
Ouellet said, “If Trump comes in, the cryptocurrency ecosystem itself will become stronger,” and he was confident that Bitcoin itself would rise in the long term regardless of the election results because its fundamentals were already well established.
Guest reporter Kim Jeong-ah kja@hankyung.com