Actually, the partial repetition of the federal election does not have much significance. But losses by the SPD and FDP and the AfD result are enough to make parties nervous.
Losses for the traffic light parties SPD and FDP, gains for CDU and AfD: The partial repeat of the federal election in Berlin increases the pressure on the coalition to counter its downward trend, which has also been documented in surveys.
The results from Sunday have limited significance: After the 2021 election failure, only around a fifth of Berlin’s electoral districts were re-voted, and far less than one percent of those eligible to vote in Germany voted. But the repeat election marks the start of the important election year of 2024 – and the parties certainly see it as a pointer.
There is little time left until the European elections on June 9th and the state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg in September. And so FDP vice-president Wolfgang Kubicki called for a course correction after his party’s “bitter result”. Berlin’s SPD leader Franziska Giffey demanded that her party in the federal government must take greater account of “the dissatisfaction that exists among the population.” The CDU state leader and governing mayor Kai Wegner viewed the result as a stop signal for the traffic lights.
Partial elections brought some changes
The nationwide overall result for 2021 only changed minimally due to the partial repetition: the FDP (11.4 percent) and the Greens (14.7 percent) each lost 0.1 percentage points. The CDU (19.0 percent) and AfD (10.4 percent) each received 0.1 points more. For the SPD (25.7 percent) and the Left (4.9 percent) everything remained the same.
The shifts were somewhat clearer after the new Berlin state results (repeated votes together with those results from 2021, which remained valid): The SPD remained the strongest party with 22.2 percent (-1.2 percentage points), just ahead of the Greens with 22.0 percent (-0.3). The CDU improved to 17.2 percent (+1.3). The AfD climbed to 9.4 percent (+1.0), the FDP fell to 8.1 percent (-0.9). The Left maintained its result with 11.5 percent (+0.1).
The returning officer did not publish the results of just the electoral districts in which elections were held again. Some media made their own calculations: According to “Tagesspiegel”, this shows that the SPD and FDP lost even more compared to 2021, the Greens and the Left made slight gains, and the CDU and AfD made strong gains.
Greens are holding their own
And what insights did the Berlin “mini federal election,” as Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck (Greens) called it with a wink, bring? First of all: not all traffic lights are the same. While the Chancellor’s party, the SPD and the FDP, suffered significant losses, the Greens appeared more stable – unlike in the state elections in Hesse and Bavaria last year. The colorful metropolis of Berlin is obviously a good place for the eco-party even in difficult times. The large protest rallies against right-wing extremism, some of which were also directed against the AfD, may also have contributed to the Greens’ account.
FDP has to do something
The situation is different for the FDP, which even lost a mandate in the Bundestag. “It must be clear to the FDP that only a bolder and more progressive economic, energy and migration policy will lead to success,” Kubicki told the German Press Agency. There is much to suggest that the FDP is now even less willing to compromise than before.
In fact, the Berlin political scientist Thorsten Faas expects corrections in the work of the traffic light. The election result raises the question: “How can trust be restored? To do this, a fine line must be found between raising the profile of one’s own party, but also forming a cohesive coalition – especially in terms of appearance.”
Opposition is happy
The CDU, on the other hand, sees itself on course. On her posters she called on voters to stop the traffic lights – and is now interpreting their growth, which was recently shown in nationwide surveys, accordingly. “People want something to change,” said Prime Minister Wegner to the dpa. “They expect the Chancellor to finally say how he wants to lead this country out of the crisis.”
Election day was satisfactory for the AfD, even if there was no major breakthrough. She has to continue to bake smaller rolls in Berlin than in eastern German states. But some results make you sit up and take notice. According to media calculations, the AfD became the strongest party in the eastern Marzahn-Hellersdorf constituency in the voting districts affected by the repeat with 33.1 percent. However, new elections were only held in six percent of the voting districts, and the SPD is still ahead in terms of the overall result.
