“Semiconductor and IT stocks hold market fate”
● It’s a once in 36 year market, but after a sharp rise, a steep decline remains.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average is sporting a stunning explosion. In particular, the sudden rise after falling more than 800 yen over the two days of June 7th and 8th is tremendous.
After the two-day decline, many market participants said, “This is the end of the rise for now,” but stock prices began to rise again as if laughing at this.
Since April this year, it has not shown a single clear selling point on the chart. Even when the price fell on the 7th and 8th, there was no clear selling. This reduction can be said to have shaken off the heavy burden of buying. Unloaded and relieved, stock prices turned to rise again.
Market sentiment around the Tokyo market has now turned bullish. Many market participants have come here and continued to say that the Nikkei Stock Average will reach 40,000 yen in the future. The material around the market is also overflowing with good material.
The author also believes that the bubble market, which happens once every 36 years, has entered the market since last year. I believe that the current progress can be seen as a prelude to that.
However, there are some concerns. A similar process followed during the Heisei bubble, but in the meantime, Black Monday occurred in October 1987, throwing the market into chaos. But four months later, the stock market, which remained at its peak, regained its pre-Black Monday highs.
Furthermore, stock prices, which had soared in May 2013 due to monetary easing and the yen’s depreciation, were swamped by profit-taking selling as China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined. The stock fell by nearly 1,500 yen in one day, and the market capitalization was blown by 40 trillion yen.
The dramatic rise and fall of the stock market at that time flashes through my mind. After a sharp rise, a steep decline awaits. And it doesn’t matter what the material is.
If it rises again this time, it can be expected that it will eventually strike back.
Pay close attention to trends in stock index futures
Then one day. In fact, “God only knows”. But there are two possible clues. One is the content of the search.Nvidia
The leading players in buying now are foreigners. Individually, they buy tech stocks, and they buy tech stocks that are worthwhile. Japanese investors have a habit of paying attention to the level of stock prices when buying, but foreign investors never hesitate to buy stocks just because stock prices are high. Moreover, the depreciation of the Yen makes it look cheap when denominated in dollars.
If so, the whole market could go crazy if the stock price hits the ceiling. The trend of high value stocks needs to be paid close attention to.
The other is stock index futures. Foreign forces buy into the futures market from time to time along with buying technology stocks with random prices. I would like to pay attention to that trend as well. When the stock market crashed in May 2013, the index futures crashed first.
Anyway, it has now been six business days since the dive on June 7th and 8th. There still seems to be an edge when it comes to everyday life.
Last but not least, semiconductors and IT stocks are lagging behind. <5253> [東証Ｇ]、ＴＤＫ <6762> [東証Ｐ]Hamamatsu Photonics <6965> [東証Ｐ]etc.
Diary for June 16, 2023
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