Stock Advisor Ryuichiro Kitahama
“Ride on a “resilient brand” that will bounce back from the spring storm!”
● Adjustment after dividend ex-rights is a good opportunity to buy at the time
The 28th was the old date for dividends and other dividends for the end of March. Calculated, the Nikkei Stock Average should have fallen by about 260 yen, but in fact it fell by 594 yen. The drop was more than double what was expected, which was a little confusing, but the price rebounded from 201 yen on the 29th over the weekend, avoiding further decline. When the interim dividend at the end of September last year was ex-claims, the stock fell significantly every day until October 4th. Thinking back to the massive collapse at that time, it looks like things will be calmer this time around.
Of course, as I am writing this the day after the old rights date, there are still only a few days left and not enough data to accurately predict the future. However, at the end of September last year, the market was in decline in Japan and the United States. In the US market, there was no end to the decline as there was widespread speculation that interest rates would continue to rise due to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
However, this time the situation is completely different. Japan and the United States maintain a very strong upward trend. As for the future, the United States is moving towards lower interest rates, and although Japan has lifted its negative interest rate policy, it has announced that it will continue to maintain accommodative policies. Since Japan and the United States are implementing policies that will push stock prices up, it is natural to assume that the impact of ex-dividend rights will be minimal. In fact, it can be said that there are many positive aspects.
This is because stocks that had been slow to gain momentum and were difficult to make new investments in are now gaining momentum. For example, Toyota Motor Corporation <7203> [東証Ｐ]. As the stock continued to rise steadily from a low of 3,398 yen on March 12th to 3,891 yen on the 27th, many investors must have stopped buying because they did not know where to invest. However, now they are pushing, although only a little. That’s another big stock, Mitsubishi Corporation. <8058> [東証Ｐ]and Softbank Group <9984> [東証Ｐ]Komatsu <6301> [東証Ｐ]Chemical Shin-Etsu <4063> [東証Ｐ]Nippon Steel <5401> [東証Ｐ]As they have also been seen in other markets, it seems likely that there will be a buying opportunity for all of them soon.
●Focus on stocks that shine in the darkness of the general downturn
However, considering efficiency, the stock price did not fall even after the old rights date arrived. In my opinion, investing in stocks like this is desirable. Do not lower it on the day you are due to lower it. The reason for this is simply that it is a strong stock – you can look at it this way.
So, the first thing I would like to focus on is IHI. <7013> [東証Ｐ]come At a cabinet meeting on March 26, the government revised the operational guidelines for the Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment in order to lift the ban on the export of next-generation fighter aircraft jointly developed and produced by Japan, the UK, and Italy to third countries. Although not something that can be exported immediately, it will become possible in the future.
The related stocks are Mitsubishi Heavy Industries <7011> [東証Ｐ]Kawasaki Heavy Industries, led <7012> [東証Ｐ]continues, but stock prices have risen significantly in both cases, making it difficult to participate. Therefore, IHI is still at a manageable level. As the stock prices of the three companies are almost in line, IHI should be your target for investment. Furthermore, the government’s positive attitude towards promoting the development of domestically produced passenger aircraft is likely to have a positive impact on the stock prices of the three companies in the future.
Official land prices from January 1, compiled by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, show that the national average for all uses increased by 2.3% from the previous year, marking the third consecutive year of progress. In response to this news, real estate stocks were not associated with prior rights. The orthodox target is Sumitomo Real Estate <8830> [東証Ｐ]fine, but if the lightness of price movements is important, then Lodestar Capital is fine. <3482> [東証Ｐ]in. In addition to increasing profits due to steady sales of office buildings mainly in Tokyo, we are also developing crowdfunding. The stock is also promising as earnings are expected to increase going forward.
ASICS <7936> [東証Ｐ]attractive too. Another brand from this company, Onitsuka Tiger, is very popular among foreigners, especially in Asia. As incoming demand is expected to increase, stock prices are rising almost constantly, but we believe there is room for further growth.
Dexrials, formerly Sony Chemical, has changed its name and relisted. <4980> [東証Ｐ]However, demand for its core specialty products (anisotropic conductive films, phosphor films, etc.) is strong, and its stock price has been on the rise since February. It seems there will be no slowing down for now.
Finally, I would like to mention stocks that are not subject to the March ex-dividend dividend. Yamax is a company located in Kumamoto City, near Kikuyo Town, which is home to many semiconductor companies. <5285> [東証Ｓ]come It is strong in secondary concrete products, and the local area is booming with semiconductor-related construction. It is easy to see that the company remains very busy, and I do not believe that the stock price will remain at the current level.
Diary March 29, 2024
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