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Riding the Trend: Economic Commentator Tomio Sugimura Predicts Higher Stock Prices Ahead

Economic commentator Tomio Sugimura
“The national policy is to promote higher stock prices. Let’s ride this trend!”

● Will the bears’ “resistance” end in vain?

The “resistance” of the bears (shorts) is likely to end in vain. On March 7th, the Nikkei Stock Average dropped sharply from 492 yen, but this was the result of the competition ahead of the SQ (Special Clearing Index Calculation) on the 8th. Well, I think there is a rush to take profit as the price has skyrocketed. But the trend has not changed. The historic rally has just begun.

The bubble burst after 1990 and the fall in stock prices as a result of the end of the Cold War structure between East and West, political inconsistency, lack of action by the authorities (on the contrary, the trend of “high stock prices are bad” ), neglect of the strong yen and deflation, and returns on stock sales This led to an increase in taxation, the departure of manufacturing companies abroad (vacuum out of industry), and the collapse and passing of Japan. Of course, there is also the atrophy of corporate managers and the dispersion of investors.

That has changed dramatically. In fact, until 1989, gains from selling stock were generally tax-free, although there were limits on the number of times and the number of shares. The new NISA (Small Investment Tax Exemption System) is a “homecoming”. This means that the government has changed its stance to “welcome higher stock prices” Furthermore, the new structure of the East-West Cold War has led to the division of friends, leading to a rush to build new factories, mainly in the semiconductor industry.

As I have pointed out repeatedly, Americans own 9,600 trillion yen in stocks and investment trusts, while the Japanese people own only 400 trillion yen. It’s 1/24th. Perhaps the reason for this is the risk averse nature of the nation, but there must also be a national policy. However, in the future, following corporate reforms, public awareness will change. The invasion of foreigners probably recognizes this.

●JALCO has the highest profit and dividend yield of 4.4%!

On the search side, together with the reversal of TOPIX, there will probably be a general move to raise prices.Following that, Mitsubishi Financial Group UFJ <8306> [東証P]Nomura Holdings <8604> [東証P]Kyushu Financial Group <7180> [東証P]Mitsukoshi Isetan Holdings <3099> [東証P]You can pay attention to things like

JALCO holdings <6625> [東証S]Ordinary profit for the fiscal year ending March 2024 will be 5,162 million yen (2,267 million yen in the previous fiscal year), the highest profit in a row. The initial plan was 1,003 million yen. In addition to the real estate business, M&A consulting is said to be doing well. Earnings per share will increase rapidly to 38.5 yen (17.2 yen), and the dividend will be 18 yen (6 yen).

The stock price is around 406 to 408 yen. At this level, the P/E ratio is 10.5 times and the dividend yield is 4.4%. Also, you will get a dividend of 18 yen in just a few weeks. Periodic profit is extremely high. President Junichi Tanabe originally worked at Nomura Securities, but rose through the ranks (as a member of the market department). He is a hard worker. The company intends to return profits (side sales) from its real estate business to shareholders.

There is almost no doubt that the operating profit per worker this year will be the highest in Japan. Currently, it is not well known, and many analysts have labeled it “neglected” (ignored → excluded from research). However, in the future, high profitability and growth potential will be evaluated. The pachinko and pachislot industry is entering a period of generational change. Business opportunities are only expanding.

Other stocks focused on productive AI field, MicrosoftFIXER partner <5129> [東証G], Laboro., seen as the favorite in AI-related fields. AI <5586> [東証G]Service NowRococo with the highest ranking partner title of <5868> [東証S]headwaters <4011> [東証G]It would be interesting to see something like that.

Diary March 8, 2024

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