The Thai stock market in the first week of February 2024 started to see signs of improvement. After more foreign investors’ money (fund flow) came back to invest in the Thai stock market, in the first 7 days (1-7 February) foreigners bought a net amount of 5,944.74 million baht after January C. The net sales amounting to 30,870 million baht.
SET points out that people can come to guess.
by “Phakorn Peetathawatchai” Director and Manager of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) pointed out that it is not possible to estimate how much of the fund flow will return from now on. You will have to wait to see the whole picture from the previous month. Because it is not possible to say how much money is still flowing Return at the beginning of the month as a short term or long term flow?
“In the first place, it is expected that If it is short-term money It will be related to the direction of the interest. and exchange rate speculation If it is long term It can also be a positive factor of confidence in the increase in Chinese tourists. Because I have to admit that Tourist numbers are very good. We have not seen the number of Chinese tourists increase by 40% like this in the last 1-2 years. It will have a very positive effect on the stock market.”
Wallet is not clear, SET is difficult to set up.
while “Gweremethikul Sorafon” Senior Director of Analysis Kasikorn Securities Company said that the direction of fund flow in the short term It is also a kind of waiting for the right moment. There are still factors that need to be followed in terms of the clarity of the digital wallet policy. Finally, how will the Constitutional Court accept the case and consider this issue So, if there is still no clarity this month, the SET Index may be difficult to raise. and fund flow is difficult to flow in
In addition, the recent meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had a 5-2 vote, causing a lack of clarity. Will the interest rate be reduced in April 2024 or will we have to wait until June 2024.
“There is uncertainty about the direction of interest rates. Causing fund flow It’s a matter of waiting for the right moment in both matters, so we haven’t yet given much importance to the fund flow that will flow in.”
Although the stock market forecast for February 2024 estimates that the SET Index will move within a support range of 1,360 points and a resistance level of 1,404 points from foreign factors which are mainly characteristics of the world economy, it looks better than expected. As a result, interest rates may not fall quickly, causing the yield on government bonds (Bond Yield) in the United States to increase.
“Last January, foreigners sold a net amount of about 30,000 million baht. Most of the factors were due to the announcement of the banking group’s budget which was not good. And the trend is still unclear among banks that are still reluctant to lend. Meanwhile, the reserves are still at a high level. Because the Thai economy is still uncertain. As a result, foreigners are selling their stocks, and in February, it is seen that the opportunity for foreign investment capital to flow in should not have a very strong inflow yet.”
This year, fund flow is not a concern.
“Saharat Chatuwan” Deputy Managing Director TISCO Asset Management Co, Ltd revealed that it is now approaching the period when the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce interest rates, including Thailand which is starting to see signs of lowering interest rates as well. In addition, government measures to stimulate the economy The direction of the digital wallet policy Including the publication of tourist numbers after the Chinese New Year. It remains to be seen how much more it will accelerate. This part will have an impact on foreign investors coming back to buy in the Thai stock market.
“I think this year is not a concern in terms of fund flow. Because it is believed that the Thai economy this year should be better than last year. Including tourism numbers, it will help support. Money from the government is becoming more prominent than last year. and think the overall stock market will improve But how far can you run? It still needs to be followed up, but I think it shouldn’t be any worse than before.”
Foreigners lack confidence
while “Therdsak Thaweethiratham” Deputy Managing Director, Research Division, Asia Plus Securities, said net foreign investors sold Thai stocks for more than 1 trillion baht over the past 10 years (2013-2023). The only year they made a net purchase was 2022. Worth 220 billion baht.
During last January Most of the foreigners who sell at a loss (Cut Loss) The main reason is the lack of confidence in the SET by the government and its unclear policies. Lowering forecasts for Thailand’s economic numbers political uncertainty Concerns about the bond market In addition, there are concerns about trading patterns through trading programs and short sales in medium-large stocks.
“In addition, if we compare the rate of economic growth (GDP Growth) of Thailand with the rates of ASEAN countries. Thailand is considered to have the lowest growth rate. Therefore, money must flow out to countries where there is a greater chance of making a profit. This is the reason the fund flow continues to flow out. And there is still no sign that the flow will return, even though Thai stocks are now cheap. “
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