Things are going badly for Vladimir Putin in his war. Although Bakhmut could soon fall to Russia, the Russian offensive is stuck. Is Ukraine’s Great Counterattack Coming?
Western tanks have arrived and Ukraine is massing forces and ammunition. While Russia is using more and more soldiers and equipment to capture Bakhmut, the Ukrainian army is preparing a major counter-offensive. Many Russian military bloggers warn that this attack will take place in the south of the country, with 60,000 soldiers and 200 to 300 tanks. Ukraine could capture parts of the land bridge from mainland Russia to Crimea. For Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, that would be a major setback – both militarily and politically.
But what is Ukraine waiting for? Military and Russia expert Gustav Gressel speaks in a t-online interview about the risks of a counterattack for Ukraine. He is certain: although the Russian army has massive supply problems, the Ukraine only has one chance for this attack.
t-online: Mr. Gressel, the Western battle tanks and ammunition have now arrived in the Ukraine. Why doesn’t the Ukrainian attack start immediately?
Gustav Gressel: That will take some time. Ukraine is also waiting for the Russian offensive to exhaust itself. The Russian army has far higher casualties during an attack than when defending. This means that as long as the Russian army has the illusion of successful attacks and Putin insists on further offensives, it will consume a lot of energy. These forces draw them away from other parts of the front.
Gustav Gressel is a senior policy fellow at the political think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). His research focuses on the military structures in Eastern Europe and in particular on the Russian armed forces.
Does that then weaken the Russian ability to respond to a Ukrainian counter-offensive?
Exactly. We can already observe that Russian reserves are decreasing and that the Russian army is basically concentrating on attacks on Bakhmut and Avdiivka. But the reserves that are now being used to take Bakhmut cannot, of course, be used to stop a Ukrainian counter-offensive.
So Ukraine is waiting for a good time to attack?
Ukraine has only one shot for this counteroffensive. The heavy war equipment from the West has not arrived in large numbers, and some main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers will not survive the attack. It is unclear for Ukraine when and to what extent it will then receive compensation. The material layer is thin and the upcoming offensive must bring results. Therefore, a further thinning out of the Russian forces is important.
One shot isn’t much. What would be the consequences if the Ukrainian offensive turned out to be a failure?
Ukraine would probably lose a whole year because it will take forever to get new material from the West. Politically, it would also be a moral dampener and also problematic in negotiations with the West, because some forces in the West are already propagating a ceasefire and a freezing of the front. This would put us in a situation where the pressure on Kiev would increase to accept a ceasefire that was very bad for them.
Why a bad truce?
Because he gives Russia a chance to prepare the next conquest of Ukrainian territory. Then the same war could start again in three to five years. Putin would get away with his war and be free to consolidate his territorial gains. It would be likely that Russia would then continue this warlike policy. That would give Putin a breather.
