Upsetting the Odds: How PolyMarket Outsmarted Media Giants CNN and New York Times in the Presidential Election Forecast

With former U.S. President Donald Trump elected as the 47th president, the decentralized prediction market platform PolyMarket‘s presidential election prediction accuracy was found to be higher than that of media outlets such as CNN and the New York Times.

According to CryptoSlate, a media outlet specializing in virtual assets (cryptocurrency), on the 6th (local time), Haseeb Qureshi, a partner at Dragonfly Capital, a virtual asset investment fund, said, “Even on the eve of the election, Polymarket’s probability of Trump winning was based on representative opinion polls. “There was a difference from the model,” he said, adding, “The poll-based model predicted a tight 50-50 vote, while Polymarket predicted a 62% chance of Trump winning.”

He continued, “At the time, media analysts evaluated Polymarket’s figures skeptically due to platform bias and the possibility of wash trading,” and added, “Even on election day, Polymarket predicted Trump’s victory faster than major media, and the dynamic efficiency of the decentralized market “It showed,” he said.

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