US Presidential Election and Stock Market: What to Expect

As the US presidential election approaches, investors are focusing their attention on the potential impact on the stock market. The latest developments and trends are summarized below.

NVIDIA Stock Price Rises Ahead of Dow Average Inclusion

Stock index futures on the New York Stock Exchange fell slightly on Monday as investors focused their attention ahead of the US presidential election. Meanwhile, Nvidia shares rose 2% in pre-market trading. S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Nvidia will replace Intel as one of the 30 stocks on the Dow Average, effective this weekend. This decision reflects the situation in the artificial intelligence (AI) field, where NVIDIA is growing rapidly while Intel is struggling. Nvidia’s stock price has soared 173% this year, while Intel has lost more than half of its value.

Outlook After the US Presidential Election

The results of the presidential election are expected to have a significant impact on stock movements through the end of the year. The latest poll from NBC News shows the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is tight. However, future market volatility is likely to be more influenced by the direction of congressional control than the presidential election. If control of the US House of Representatives and the Senate are separated, the status quo is likely to be maintained, but if Republicans or Democrats take control of Congress, the possibility of a large-scale spending plan or tax overhaul increases with the same party winning the White House.

Possibility of Rally at the End of the Year

Wall Street sees this presidential election as a key gateway for a year-end rally. Data since 1944 shows that strong early gains in election years are often followed by further gains in November and December. Sam Stovall of CFRA Research predicted, “There will be some volatility next week, but beyond that, there will be a bull market in November and December.” This week, Wall Street is also paying attention to the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision. According to CME Group FedWatch, traders see a 96% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the end of this policy meeting.

Stock Price Index Futures

The Dow Jones Futures fell 0.08%, Nasdaq futures fell 0.24%, and S&P500 futures fell 0.01%. The US dollar index fell 0.57% to 103.68, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell 10.9 points to 4.288%, and WTI futures rose 2.99% to $71.57 per barrel.

Market Analysis and Insights

Financial markets are extremely nervous due to variables in the US presidential election. Investors are advised to stay informed and up-to-date on the latest market trends and analysis.