Good morning, dear reader,
“Europe is like a bicycle. If you stop it, it falls over.” This is a famous sentence from Jacques Delorsthe former President of the EU Commission and pioneer of the European internal market and the euro.
For Delors, the European Union should always keep moving. The decision-makers – in the picture the cyclists – always have to pedal and adapt to the circumstances: headwind sometimes comes from the left, sometimes from the right, sometimes it goes uphill, sometimes downhill. Cyclists know this just as well as politicians.
I thought about this quote from Delors again these days. Not just because he died at the end of December at the age of 98 and there was a memorial service for him in Brussels last night. But also because I’m not sure how well the European bike rides right now.
This is mainly due to Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who likes to let the air out of his tires. The EU institutions should have reacted to this long ago, but instead they watched what he was doing for far too long. Now they could resort to particularly drastic measures – with an uncertain outcome.
Today the 27 heads of state and government of the EU are meeting in Brussels for their first summit of the year. The biggest issue has not changed since the last meeting in December: EU leaders want to decide on a 50 billion euro package for Ukraine, which the country will receive over the next four years.
In times of a lack of aid from the USA, the package would be an important signal of support. The money could continue to pay many Ukrainian officials who keep the war-torn country running. But it would also be an important sign for the EU, as military support has recently been seriously miscalculated: the Union wanted to jointly deliver a million artillery shells by March. But yesterday EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell had to admit that only a little more than half would be collected by then. After all, he also announced that he would increase military aid to at least 21 billion euros this year.
Orbán blocked the 50 billion euros in December. And today he has objections again. He doesn’t want to pass on all the money for four years. Instead, there should be a new vote every year. Since there must be unanimity among the 27 EU states on this issue, this means that Orbán could veto it again every year.
In principle, the EU does not stand idly by and watch Orbán’s activities. The so-called rule of law mechanism has already been initiated against Hungary: EU funds can be cut for countries that undermine democracy. At least 12 billion euros that were supposed to go from Brussels to Budapest have already been frozen.
However, the approach is not particularly consistent; especially because the money tap was not completely turned off. Only shortly before the last summit did the EU Commission suddenly clear the way for a new 10 billion euros to Hungary. Officially it was said that the money was paid out because Hungary was able to make progress in the rule of law. However, there is speculation behind closed doors that the money was already being used to try to buy Orbán’s approval for aid to Ukraine. President Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission could potentially face legal action by the EU Parliament.
You notice: The EU could have gotten lost here. The approach is not wrong: Orbán is not impressed by big speeches or criticism from outside. Because at home he doesn’t have to fear any major backlash – neither from the divided opposition nor from the largely aligned media landscape. His weak point remains his wallet.
Despite sanctions, Hungary is one of the EU states that receives the most money from Brussels. But that is exactly what could soon change radically: The “Financial Times” recently revealed an internal paper from EU circles that, in the event of a veto, consideration would be given to stopping all payments. But that’s not all: before the summit, there is public speculation about whether Orbán’s voting rights in the Council of Heads of State and Government will be completely withdrawn in the future.
Both measures alone would be extremely heavy weapons and not without risk: A stop to all funding could put the already struggling Hungarian economy in such dire straits that the measure could ultimately develop into a boomerang within the EU. Maybe you still remember the euro crisis 14 years ago.
However, whoever draws this sword should also consider the consequences. It would probably mean the final break between Hungary and the EU. Viktor Orbán would probably orient himself even more towards Russia. He could also continue to play the role he most enjoys: that of the rebel against the Brussels he hates.
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