The Ukrainian army is about to break through the first Russian line of defense in the south. What does that mean for the Ukraine war, and how does Kremlin chief Putin react? An overview.
It is only a first step, albeit an important one: on the southern front, the Ukrainian army has apparently managed to break through the first, heavily fortified Russian line of defense. The village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhia region was “liberated,” Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maljar confirmed on Monday. Now it could finally come – the long-awaited breakthrough of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
But how important is the capture of the small village in southern Ukraine anyway? Is the front of the Russian army collapsing again, as it did in Kharkiv in autumn 2022?
The military and Russia expert Gustav Gressel explains in a t-online interview what the possible breakthrough of the first Russian main line of defense means for the further course of the war in Ukraine and why Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin still does not want to negotiate.
t-online: Mr. Gressel. The Ukrainian army announced an important military success on the southern front. Did Ukraine actually break through the first line of Russian defenses?
Gustav Gressel: This is still a bit unclear, because there are different maps showing exactly where the Russian defense lines are. It’s not a breakthrough across the board, but at one point south of Robotyne, Ukrainian troops seem to have cut a swath. If true, Ukraine will now seek to broaden this breakthrough.
Gustav Gressel
is a senior policy fellow at the political think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). His research focuses on the military structures in Eastern Europe and in particular on the Russian armed forces.
Does this mean that the situation in Ukraine remains difficult?
Partly definitely. The Russians are not just looking on, they have deployed reserves in the form of two regiments of airborne troops and one tank brigade from the 58th Army. The next few days will be tough for Ukraine as it has to defend the breakthrough against Russian counterattacks.
But doesn’t the Ukrainian army strategically have an advantage on this section of the front?
It depends on how heavily the other Russian defense lines behind it are manned and expanded. This is currently completely unclear. But as I said, the Ukrainian army must increase the width of the penetration point, otherwise their advancing formations will be easier targets for the Russian artillery. From the Ukrainian point of view, it is advantageous that the minefields in the hinterland and in the Russian depths are no longer quite as dense because the Russian forces have laid aisles here in order to be able to conduct counterattacks. This now allows Ukraine to maneuver more flexibly.
Fewer and fewer observers in the West expected this counter-offensive to be successful. Would a breakthrough come as a surprise?
No, actually not. After all the criticism of Ukraine’s counter-offensive, the Ukrainian military leadership said they were close to a breakthrough. We have also seen over the past week where most of the fighting has taken place and that the Ukrainian army has sent very experienced brigades into the fray.
How is it going now?
For Ukraine, the point is to widen the breakthrough, to withstand the Russian counterattack. Then, when the Ukrainian army is behind the first Russian line of defense, it can roll up that line from the flank. Then this breakthrough point could grow in breadth.
What does this mean for the Russian army?
She still has to counterattack to stop the Ukrainian breakthrough and try to throw Ukraine back behind the defensive line.
And if that doesn’t work?
Then the Russian army has a problem. In this case, they would have to secure their flanks and expand their second line of defense.
